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The Molds Are Far From Hardening on the ‘08 Season

Two weeks and what can we tell?

This team is better than the ‘07 version.  Will that be good enough?  Ask me again in December.  We’ve only got two weeks of impressions and this is what we know:

– Tony Romo hasn’t been sacked yet, though the Eagles tried. The protection should improve once Kyle Kosier returns.

– The Cowboys scored 82 points through two last year.  They’ve put up 69 this year. Still, they’re more explosive this time.  They’re averaging 7.4 yards per offensive play, tops in the NFL.  They have more options, with Felix Jones, Martellus Bennett and Miles Austin.

– Jason Witten, as predicted, is on pace for a career year.

– This defense is also playing much, much better than last year’s.  That may seem like putting a suit on an ape, but let’s compare.  Through two games, the ‘08 Cowboys are giving up 271 yards per game.  Through two games last year, against the Giants and the Dolphins, the Cowboys were giving up 386 a game.

– Dallas has faced two of the best offenses from ‘07 and still has a top ten ranking.  That ranking will be tested by the Packers, and the secondary has some coverage issues to sort out, but they’re still over 100 yards per game better than Wade and Stew 1.0, so let’s hold off dismissing them.

– Last year’s team had given up 55 points at this point.  This year’s team has yielded 47.

– While we’re on the subject of struggling defense, where are the dominants units this year?  The Chargers are supposed to be Super Bowl contenders and they’ve given up 65 points so far.  They’re one step ahead of Detroit in the defensive ratings.

The Eagles are supposed to be Super Bowl timber, but the Cowboys didn’t have too much trouble scoring on them, did they?  The Bears looked like their old Super Bowl selves when they smashed the Colts, and yet the Steve Smith-deficient Panthers beat them this past week.  The Giants and Steelers look strong, but I want to see New York after they’ve made one circuit through the NFC East.  The Rams are tonic for anybody’s stat line.

This has been a trend the last few years.  What’s the last dominant defense you can recall?  Chicago looked like one for three months two years ago, but they lost their swagger when Tommie Harris got hurt.

The better teams, the Patriots, the Colts, the Cowboys, Packers and the like, have been riding superior offenses and good but not great defenses into the postseason.  We’re in an offensive cycle and it appears 2008 will continue the pattern.

Beware the Week One Rush to Judgement

NFL fans can’t wait. They’ve been without football since early February and they’re getting real football back. Their hearts are racing. Their minds are spinning.

And it leads to outrageous over reactions to good play and bad. I’ve said for years that week one of the NFL schedule is the most overanalyzed. People form hard opinions of teams that are hard to shake.

Week one reveals very litte in the long run. It resembles the end of ‘07 more than it will tell us how ‘08 will unfold. There are several factors that make it unlike any other. First, it’s the only regular season game for most teams where the staffs will have more than three to four days to prepare. For the remainder of the season coaches will have to put Sunday’s game behind them and have fresh game plans ready to install that Wednesday and Thursday.

This week, coaches can unwrap game plans that have been weeks in the making. Dallas started practicing for the Browns last week, when the Vikings were still on their schedule.

There’s the conditioning issue. Some teams have been holding back injured starters to keep them for real games. This means you’ll see teams that might not have their timing down or have the stamina to go 60 minutes. If you saw the Giants/Redskins opener you know what I’m writing. The Giants looked like they were going to run Washington off the field, racing to a second-quarter 16-0 lead. But the game stalled in the second half, where neither team scored a point.

There are teams with new staffs that are learning new systems. They’re often not ready to play their best ball on opening day.

Weeks two and three are much better indicators or what a team will be. Don’t misunderstand, I’m not trying to downplay Dallas’ odds. I think they’ll win, in part because too many Cleveland starters missed too much time this summer, a point I’ll address in the final preview today. That said, there’s a chance parts of the Cowboys game will be ragged.

Think back to last year. The Cowboys won their opener against a division rival and yet a lot of fans were white hot at Wade Phillips because his team gave up 35 points. He was a fraud, they said, a defensive coach with no defense. The secondary was doomed because Terence Newman was hurt.

Was this game a true indicator of the defense’s and the team’s future? No. The Cowboys allowed 20, 10 and 7 points in the next three games and finished the month 4-0.

Root hard, my friends, but don’t root yourself sick. There will be a week two and a week three, and thirteen more game weeks after that.

Everybody Hurts

Update: Osi Umenyiora has a torn MCL and will miss the entire 2008 season.

Update 2: They’re breathing easier in Washington, where Jason Taylor’s knee sprain will only keep him out two weeks.

Update 3:  Dawkins has a “mild sprain” of his ankle and expects to be ready for the Eagles season opener.

Cowboys fans are no doubt concerned about the offensive line’s cohesion after Kyle Kosier sprained his foot. The injury will likely wipe out the first month of his season.

Kosier has plenty of company in the trainer’s room. Every team in the division suffered at least one significant injury last night.

– In New York, they’re sweating Osi Umenyiora’s MRI. He was taken from the field on a cart after injuring his knee. Umenyiora was in extreme pain and told trainers his knee “locked up.” Coach Tom Coughlin said trainers do not believe the DE suffered ligament damage but nobody will know the full extent of Umenyiora’s injury until later today.

If Umenyiora has to miss significant time the team’s defensive strength, their pass rush line, will take a body blow. Michael Strahan is resting in California after retiring. Right now New York may have to open the season without both its starting ends from ‘07. One city paper is already urging Giants GM Jerry Butler to call Strahan and try to coax him back onto the team.

– In Washington, the Redskins are concerned that DE Jason Taylor may have a significant knee injury. He’s also slated for an MRI today after hurting a knee in the 47-3 blowout loss to Carolina. The Redskins acquired Taylor because they had already lost two DEs, one of them ‘07 team sack leader Philip Daniels, for the season.

Washington also lost RT Jon Jansen with a sprained foot. Jansen missed most of ‘07 with an Achilles injury.

– Philadelphia has lost FS Brian Dawkins for an undetermined amount of time because he injured his ankle Saturday night against New England.

The Eagles are already thin at wide receiver, where Kevin Curtis will miss several weeks with a hernia and Reggie Brown is nursing a sore hamstring.

Philly also has questions on the offensive line. C Jamaal Jackson suffered a concussion last night and RG Shawn Andrews is just back after seeking treatment for despression.

The NFL season is a war of attrition. I don’t think so many teams expected to be so worn before it gets started. Add Tom Brady’s and Peyton Manning’s injuries to the equation and injuries rival Gene Upshaw’s death as the top league story heading to opening day.

“Are you ready for some sock-ker!?”

– The Simpsons, mocking Hank Williams Jr.’s tired opening line.

Finally. Real action that everybody can see. For those living in a cave, the NFL Network will broadcast the Cowboys/Chargers game, so get yourself to a friend with cable, or a sports bar. The game will be visible nationwide. It’s only a preseason game, meaning the starters will play at most a quarter. That said, here are some matchups to look for, some rookies to track and where to find them.

When Dallas Has the Ball

– The same starting 11 will return to the field from the Giants playoff game, with Marion Barber now the man at running back. Deon Anderson will play fullback when Dallas goes to its 21 packages (two backs) and Tony Curtis will join Jason Witten when Dallas calls for its 12 sets (two TEs). See how often Martellus Bennett spells Curtis. The more he plays in the first quarter, the more ready the coaches feel he is. He’ll play a lot, regardless.

When the starters are in, take a look to see how Andre Gurode fares against mammoth NT Jamal Williams. And don’t dawdle. Williams sat out the first week of camp and likely won’t play more than a series or two, if he plays at all.

The Chargers front appears a bit dinged. Starting DEs Igor Olashansky and Luis Castillo have missed time with back problems and may also miss the game entirely.

At linebacker, former 49ers ILB Derek Smith will start for Stephen Cooper, who will miss the first month on suspension.

In the secondary, however, the Chargers appear loaded and will challenge the Cowboys receiving corps. Quentin Jammer has resumed with strong ‘07 with a strong training camp. He and Antonio Cromartie will match up against T.O. and Patrick Crayton. Crayton was very strong against league-average CBs but really struggled against blue-chippers, so Dallas may throw away from him if Jammer gets him.

The game will also let us see Chargers 1st rounder Antoine Cason, whom the San Diego scribes call one of the team’s best performers in camp.

Watch to see if Felix Jones gets some reps with the first team. The Cowboys have installed some special sets that get him on the field with Marion Barber and on 3rd down but they may be kept under wraps until the games count.

When the second quarter begins, watch the second line. Doug Free has been working exclusively at left tackle but watch James Marten and Pat McQuistan, who have both been rotating at left guard and right tackle. If Dallas goes all backups, look for a Free, Marten, Cory Proctor, Joe Berger, McQuistan lineup from left tackle to right tackle. Dallas won’t keep all five of these guys, with Berger and Marten probably facing the longest odds at this point.

When San Diego Has the Ball

The Chargers are really beaten up here, so the Dallas starting eleven will match up against a lot of backups. Center Nick Hardwick has yet to practice while rehabbing an injured ankle. Former 49er Jeremy Newberry will take his place until at least October, as Hardwick is expected to miss four games. That said, Newberry is being paced slowly; the 12 year vet’s knees are cartilage deficient.

The Cowboys will also miss three key Chargers skill-position players. WR Vincent Jackson played lights out week one, but strained a hamstring and has missed the last week. He’s out. So is Antonio Gates, who is rehabbing a surgically-repaired big toe and is aiming for the season opener.

Dallas will also miss LaDainian Tomlinson, who will be held out of every pre-season game, according to head coach Norv Turner. Tomlinson has nothing to prove and with the other injuries, Turner will not risk his biggest offensive weapon.

Rookie Watch

Where some Dallas bubble boys are working out:

– Danny Amemdola has been playing the slot, gunner on punt coverage teams, punt and kickoff returner.

– Alonzo Coleman has been playing RB, and coverage on punts and kickoff teams. The same is true for Keon Lattimore. They are both batting to be the 4th running back, if the Cowboys keep four.

– Erik Walden is backing up Demarcus Ware at WOLB and is on the coverage teams as well.

Dallas May Be America’s Team…

but the Patriots are Hungary’s Team, dammit!

Check out this site.

It seems the Hungarians also love themselves some Pittsburgh Steelers. The Cowboys, based on visitors, are mid-pack.

Adam Jones, CB Rankings and Ken Hamlin’s Best Position: K.C. Joyner Returns, Part I

The football scientist K.C. Joyner gave BSR an interview Friday, taking time from finishing Scientific Football 2008 to discuss Adam Jones, the Cowboys incumbent corners, whether Ken Hamlin should be moved to strong safety and other topics. Today, we focus on the defense.

BSR: Adam Jones has finally landed in the Cowboys’ secondary. There’s a lot of discussion on the site about his ability to recover from a year off. I don’t think it’s an issue. He was suspended for being a knucklead. He didn’t miss time for a major injury or behavior that damaged his body, like drug or alcohol abuse. Paul Hornung and Alex Karras missed a full year in ‘63 for gambling. Both played well after they returned and they were both 28 the year they sat. Jones was 24. I think his performance curve can actually improve.

Joyner: I agree. Physiologists and baseball analysts like Bill James say that your physical peak comes around age 27 or 28. Don’t forget that John Riggins also sat out a year and helped win a Super Bowl after he returned.

BSR: I saw a comment from an AFC pro personnel guy who said Jones has talent but was inconsistent while at Tennessee. How much can we expect him to add to the secondary this year?

Joyner: Remember, he’s replacing Jacques Reeves. Reeves had a 7.9 yards per attempt in ‘07. Now, a 7.0 YPA is about league average. Adam Jones had a 5.4 YPA in 2006 (which ranked 8th overall). Jones doesn’t have to equal that to be an improvement. Even if he’s a notch below his ‘06 play he’ll raise the secondary’s play.

As for being inconsistent, you don’t post a 5.4 YPA giving up a lot of big plays. He may have given up a decent throw here and there, but you can’t give up many and post a number like that.

BSR: How did the Cowboys’ regular corners rate?

Joyner: Anthony Henry had a 6.6 YPA. That’s in the top third. Terence Newman had a 6.2 YPA. That’s in the top 20. The Cowboys had a top ten secondary with Reeves starting 13 games. They should be as good or better with Jones.

[Note: Joyner didn't have his rankings handy, but he's on the mark. A 6.2 YPA ranked 15th in both the '05 and '06 CB ratings. A 6.6 YPA ranked 21st and 20th in those years. ]

BSR: There’s been a lot of speculation that the Cowboys will move to Anthony Henry to free safety and Ken Hamlin to strong safety, putting Roy Williams on the bench. Henry hinted at this when Jones got some reps at starting right corner in last week’s mini-camp. But Hamlin was very good at free safety last year. Would Dallas be messing with success to move him?

Joyner: Before Ken Hamlin the Cowboys were awful at free safety. [Note: Keith Davis and Pat Watkins had the worst pass coverage numbers for starting FSs in '05 and '06.]

I think Dallas might be creating one problem by trying to solve another one. I don’t have his stats but Hamlin was very, very good last year. If the Cowboys want to replace Roy Williams at strong safety, they should get another strong safety. Look, I don’t have any problems saying this on the record. I think Roy Williams is just one of those guys, like Randy Moss, who’s going to play his game, the game that he wants to play, no matter what.

BSR: Let’s look at the Dallas secondary in comparison to another top divisional unit. I’ve written a couple of pieces on the NFC and I have the Eagles as my bubble team; I’m putting them outside the playoffs but can see them in if they keep Lito Sheppard. How good can Philly’s secondary be if they keep him?

Joyner: Lito dropped off. He takes chances and has high YPAs but the Eagles put up with it because he made plays and got picks. He’s stopped doing that.

BSR: What did Asante Samuel post last year?

Joyner: He was 7.2. Good, but not great.

I think the Eagles suffered letting nickel back Rod Hood go. He posted a 6.6 YPA for Arizona, which is very respectable. They replaced him with William James, who had a YPA over 11.0 last year, which is one of the worst marks in the league.

– Come back Monday for Part II, where K.C. will discuss Tony Romo’s ‘07, the difficult matchups he faces in ‘08, Patrick Crayton’s value as a number two and whether rumored WR target Joe Horn has anything left.

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