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Fun With SF ‘08 Part V: More Aikman and Less Farve This Year, Mr. Romo. Please!

September 2, 2008

When we last saw the Dallas offensive regulars, they were pushing to the edge of dominance against a young and rising Texans defense. The Cowboys first offensive series scored a touchdown. The second just missed a TD when a Tony Romo pass flew a foot or so beyond a wide open Terrell Owens.

The third drive slashed to Houston’s two. There, six feet from an early knockout, Romo offered a jarring caveat to all the Cowboys fans dreaming of a Super Bowl run. He forced a first down pass to a well covered Tony Curtis and was picked off. Instead of trotting to the sidelines with a 17-3 lead, he watched a deflated defense surrender a long, game-tying drive.

This was the bad Tony returned, the gunslinger whose wild ways kept Bill Parcells from handing Romo the offense reins earlier in his career. It was a reminder that for all his accuracy and magic, there’s still a young Brett Favre inside of Romo just waiting for the worst moment at which to appear.

Let’s compare his ten-start ‘06 to his full-season ‘07:

Tony Romo YPA Rank Near Int. Bad Dec. B.D. % Rank
2006
 8.4 1st 11 7 1.9 T-12th
2007
 8.2 T-1st 28 22 4.0 39th

Romo’s YPAs show that he’s been one of the most effective passers in the game during his short career, mixing high accuracy with an aggressive, down-the-field style that produces big yards per attempt. He had the top spot alone in ‘06 and shared it with Tom Brady last year.

The downside to that aggressiveness is bouts of recklessness. Think Buffalo and the six interceptions, almost all of which occurred because Romo lacked the patience — at least for 52 minutes — to take what the Bills cover-two scheme conceded.

Look at Romo’s bad-decisions totals and his ranks. In his rookie season he tied for 12th in that category with Peyton Manning. That’s a great line. QBs like Manning sometimes have bad-decision averages in the top third or near mid-pack. It’s a by-product of attacking and not playing Brad Johnson-ball.

Look next at the ‘07 totals, where his percentage of bad decisions, passes where he forced passes into coverage and risked a pick, more than doubled. He ranked second-from-the-last in that category among starters, with only Derek Anderson and Jay Cutler faring worse.

His 28 near interceptions ranked next-to-last. Only his boyhood idol Brett Favre had more. To frame these stat lines another way, consider that in ‘06 Drew Bledsoe ranked second-to-last in bad decision percentage. Dallas found a rude amalgam in Romo 2.0 — the swagger and daring of Roger Staubach mixed with the consistent brain freezes of Drew Bledsoe.

That’s not to say Romo became or is in danger of becoming Drew Bledsoe. He’s better, even with the miscues. But one reason why Tom Brady has played in four Super Bowls this decade is that despite his high YPAs, he consistently makes the fewest bad decisions.

Romo talked this summer about improving his pocket presence and trying to be more patient with his reads. If he can return his stat line to the ‘06 standard and is Troy Aikman-like with his passes, Dallas truly is a Super Bowl contender. If we get more of the ‘07 edition, the bad Brett Favre replica, the one who threw that pick two weeks ago against the Texans, the more likely forecast is a Pro Bowl berth, a playoff berth and another painful playoff defeat.

Written by Rafael Vela · Filed Under News | 25 Comments 

Everybody Hurts

August 24, 2008

Update: Osi Umenyiora has a torn MCL and will miss the entire 2008 season.

Update 2: They’re breathing easier in Washington, where Jason Taylor’s knee sprain will only keep him out two weeks.

Update 3:  Dawkins has a “mild sprain” of his ankle and expects to be ready for the Eagles season opener.

Cowboys fans are no doubt concerned about the offensive line’s cohesion after Kyle Kosier sprained his foot. The injury will likely wipe out the first month of his season.

Kosier has plenty of company in the trainer’s room. Every team in the division suffered at least one significant injury last night.

– In New York, they’re sweating Osi Umenyiora’s MRI. He was taken from the field on a cart after injuring his knee. Umenyiora was in extreme pain and told trainers his knee “locked up.” Coach Tom Coughlin said trainers do not believe the DE suffered ligament damage but nobody will know the full extent of Umenyiora’s injury until later today.

If Umenyiora has to miss significant time the team’s defensive strength, their pass rush line, will take a body blow. Michael Strahan is resting in California after retiring. Right now New York may have to open the season without both its starting ends from ‘07. One city paper is already urging Giants GM Jerry Butler to call Strahan and try to coax him back onto the team.

– In Washington, the Redskins are concerned that DE Jason Taylor may have a significant knee injury. He’s also slated for an MRI today after hurting a knee in the 47-3 blowout loss to Carolina. The Redskins acquired Taylor because they had already lost two DEs, one of them ‘07 team sack leader Philip Daniels, for the season.

Washington also lost RT Jon Jansen with a sprained foot. Jansen missed most of ‘07 with an Achilles injury.

– Philadelphia has lost FS Brian Dawkins for an undetermined amount of time because he injured his ankle Saturday night against New England.

The Eagles are already thin at wide receiver, where Kevin Curtis will miss several weeks with a hernia and Reggie Brown is nursing a sore hamstring.

Philly also has questions on the offensive line. C Jamaal Jackson suffered a concussion last night and RG Shawn Andrews is just back after seeking treatment for despression.

The NFL season is a war of attrition. I don’t think so many teams expected to be so worn before it gets started. Add Tom Brady’s and Peyton Manning’s injuries to the equation and injuries rival Gene Upshaw’s death as the top league story heading to opening day.

Written by Rafael Vela · Filed Under News | 54 Comments 

Tony Romo, Tough ‘08 Matchups and Who Needs a 2nd Receiver? K.C. Joyner Returns, Part II

June 30, 2008

Today, K.C. turns his attention to the offensive side of the ball.

BSR: Last year your write up of Tony Romo said he was probably NFL QB at intermediate range throws. How would you rate his ‘07 game. Did he improve, regress or stay about the same?

Joyner: I think he regressed a little bit. His bad decisions increased. I think teams forced him to be more patient, to be willing to go down the field in 10 to 12 yard throws. He wasn’t always willing to do this, as you saw in the Buffalo game.

BSR: I’m amazed at the amount of abuse he gets because the Cowboys lost to the Giants. He’s only played one full season in the league and he’s sometimes portrayed as a failure, as if he’s got this long habit of choking that he needs to overcome.

Joyner: I know what you’re saying. I remember when he dropped the field goal snap in Seattle in ‘06 and people were telling me his career was over, and I remember saying, “no, that’s a good NFL quarterback.”

He’s not the guy who’s going to be the benefit of the doubt. When Peyton Manning started in Indy, he was the cornerstone. They had a ton invested him and he had a reputation for being the hardest working guy on the team, so even though he had trouble in his early playoffs he was given a lot of slack.

The press sees Romo with starlets and they see Joe Namath. He’s not given a lot of slack.

Roger Staubach was an excellent quarterback but he lost Super Bowl 10 to the Steelers, he lost to them in ‘77 when Dallas won the title, he lost Super Bowl 13 the following year and lost Super Bowl 13 and a half in ‘79. He was 0-4 against Terry Bradshaw and the Steelers but you never hear, “oh, Roger could never beat the Steelers.”

BSR: Adam Schefter of the NFL Network reported that Dallas was supposedly interested in Joe Horn. Does he have anything left?

Joyner: Joe Horn did not have enough attempts to qualify for my ratings but his numbers were between five and six, which are not good.

I have to wonder why they feel they need another complementary receiver. I have a new rating this year, where I look at how a receiver did against three different classes of corners. I classify any CB with a YPA below 7 yards as a red corner, a CB with a YPA between 7 and 9 as a yellow corner and any corner with a YPA above 9 as a green corners. Reds are matchups you tend to avoid, yellows you attack with caution and greens are great matchups for a quarterback.

Last year, Patrick Crayton had a 5.4 YPA against red corners, which is not very good. But his YPA against yellow CBs and against green CBs was above nine. Now a YPA around ten will usually rate a receiver at the top of the league.

This means that when he was not matched up against elite corners, Patrick Crayton was a very effective receiver.

Look, Terrell Owens will probably have 150 passes thrown his way. Jason Witten will get another 100 to 120. Crayton will probably get 90 to 100 balls. The running backs and backup tight ends will get maybe 60 or so. That’s just over 400 attempts. How much will Dallas need another receiver?

Here’s another reason why I wonder if Dallas needs another receiver. I used the red/yellow/green system to rate the matchups each QB will face in ‘08, giving a zero every time a QB faces a red CB, one point for a yellow CB and two for a green one.

Tony Romo has the lowest matchup total for any QB entering 2008, meaning he faces the hardest schedule passing wise. When the Cowboys coaches look at their opponents I think they’ll rely on their running game more this season. Now, every other NFC East QB will also have a tough road, but Romo has the most difficult schedule, period.

BSR: How do you rate Dallas’ chances, given Romo’s matchup problems? 2007 came to a disappointing end but I never wavered from my belief that the ‘07 Cowboys were not going all the way. Their defense was not finished. I think they’re close enough to being complete this time. They didn’t match up against New England and could not match the Giants in producing a rush with four men.

Joyner: I think the Cowboys have an excellent chance. They have arguably the most talented team in the NFC, with San Diego being arguably the most talented team in the AFC.

BSR: Careful, K.C., you’re stealing my thunder. Dallas and San Diego meet in their first pre-season games and I see them squaring off again in the Super Bowl. Thanks again for joining us.

– K.C. Joyner will be featured in a BSR podcast later this week to answer more questions, promote “Scientific Football 2008,” his new cornerback tracking service and “Blindsided,” a new book which aims to puncture several football myths.  If you have a question for K.C., post it in the thread.

Written by Rafael Vela · Filed Under General, Interviews, News | 13 Comments 

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