Browse > Home /

How ‘Bout That NFC?!

September 7, 2008

I’m watching the Bears smack the Colts around and I wonder if the NFL’s center of gravity is shifting? Consider the AFC/NFC matchups this weekend:

  • Dallas 28, Cleveland 10
  • Carolina 26, San Diego 24
  • Buffalo 34, Seattle 10
  • Chicago 29, Indianapolis 13

Yeah, it’s week one, but look at the assumed cream of the AFC. The Patriots are in disarray, fearful that Tom Brady could be lost for the year with an ACL tear. Carolina didn’t play Steve Smith and still stunned the Chargers. The Colts are sputtering with a rusty Peyton Manning under center. They look a half step slow in comparison to the swarming Bears.

Only Pittsburgh looked dominant in the AFC today. It’s early, but we may be witnessing the AFC dropping back to the NFC’s level, which means the Super Bowl race is truly wide open.

Written by Rafael Vela · Filed Under General | 50 Comments 

Which Teams Have the Best Corner Units?

July 16, 2008

In part four of the series assessing cornerbacks using K.C. Joyner’s YPA stats from 2004 through 2007, I move from individual assessments to unit ratings. Joyner has a new set of ratings in Scientific Football 2008. I’m not going to rely on these numbers, though I will relay that Dallas finished ‘07 in the top ten.

I’ve chosen to overlook his ‘07 ratings for two reasons. First, they’re exclusive to 2007. Joyner rates the corner units as they performed in ‘07. That’s fine, but with Adam Jones joining the Cowboys’ roster, fans are interested in predictive stats.

For that reason I’m using any and all of Joyner’s numbers from the past four years. I figure more is better. As you’ve seen, a player’s YPA’s can fluctuate wildly from year to year. If we want an idea of how a corner is likely to perform in ‘08, I think it’s best to use all the data that’s available. In Terence Newman’s and Anthony Henry’s cases, I’m using their four-year averages, since those numbers are available. In Jones’ case, Joyner has two years of numbers on him, so I’ll go with their average and will do the same with every other CB.

I’m also rating the units three deep, since nickel backs are vital in this era of spread sets. This will lead to some omissions that cannot be helped. For example, Buffalo will be playing a rookie, Leodis McKelvin at one corner spot this year, so I can’t put a number on his performance.

Lastly, I’m simply averaging the three player’s YPAs here, which does not give proper weight to each player’s contribution, so consider these “soft” averages. Therefore, I’m going to place the units in tiers, rather than in a column. By coincidence, there are only five units that have an average YPA below 7.0, so they form my pantheon. Here they are in alphabetical order, with each player’s average YPA in parentheses:

1. Chicago — Nathan Vasher (5.7), Charles Tillman (6.6), Trumaine McBride (7.1)
Vasher is the best corner we have not discussed yet, because I have not rated players with only two seasons of YPAs. Vasher was top notch in ‘05 and ‘06 but missed 12 games last year because of injury. McBride filled in and posted a very respectable 7.1 YPA.

2. Dallas — Terence Newman (6.2), Adam Jones (6.3), Anthony Henry (7.4)
Jones has an average near Newman’s and has a career peak topping Newman’s, posting an outstanding 5.4 YPA in ‘06. (Newman’s career best is 5.7.) If Jones can approach this number again, he’ll be a starter.

3. Green Bay — Charles Woodson (6.5), Al Harris (7.5), Jarrett Bush (6.6)
Harris gets a lot of love from the press, but his YPA is lower than Anthony Henry’s. Like Henry, he’ll break up passes but give up some huge gains. Bush was very good in his first year at nickelback.

4. Pittsburgh — Deshea Townsend (6.3), Ike Taylor (7.4), Bryant McFadden (6.0)
It’s feast or famine with this bunch. Taylor has been consistently average at one corner and therefore draws most of the action. Townsend and McFadden have alternated so-so seasons with off-the-charts good ones. Both had YPAs below 5.5 last year. If the pattern holds, they’ll be off this season.

5. Washington — Shawn Springs (5.5), Fred Smoot (6.8), Carlos Rogers (7.1)
Springs outstanding play the past four years raises this bunch, but Smoot and Rogers have been steady and good, if unspectacular.

Written by Rafael Vela · Filed Under NFL, Players, Teams | 11 Comments 

Dallas May Be America’s Team…

July 4, 2008

but the Patriots are Hungary’s Team, dammit!

Check out this site.

It seems the Hungarians also love themselves some Pittsburgh Steelers. The Cowboys, based on visitors, are mid-pack.

Written by Rafael Vela · Filed Under General, Previews | 14 Comments 

NFL Trends ‘08 - The Return of Lenny Moore?

June 18, 2008

Lenny Moore was the first double threat in the modern NFL era. He played halfback and flanker for the Johnny Unitas-led Baltimore Colts in the late ’50s and ’60s and was a blue-chipper at both positions. He made the Hall of Fame and a panel of former players and personnel men recently named him one of the ten best running backs of all time.

Recent news from NFL mini-camps suggests to me that we may see a resurgence in Lenny Moore-type running backs this year.

We have seen two major offensive trends in the recent NFL. One is towards spread offenses, which use base three and four receiver sets. The Patriots’ success last year with a base 3-WR, 1-RB package will no doubt be duplicated in this copycat league. The other sees more teams using running back platoons.

Reports from Tennessee, Pittsburgh and Dallas hint that the OCs there will combine both trends, producing an offense that features two running backs on the field at the same time, with one of the backs displaying Moore’s running and receiving skills.

Let’s begin in Tennessee, where the Titans’ OC Mike Heimerdinger was drawing up plays as fast as his hands could write them at the team’s first camp to get Chris Johnson on the field. His 4.2 speed was evident and the Titans will try to get him on the field in space in combination with Lendale White or Chris Brown. With Vince Young under center, the Titans are the closest thing the NFL has to an option-capable team.

In Pittsburgh, the Steelers are drooling about Rashard Mendenhall’s potential and are trying to get him on the field as much as possible. The linked story says he’s being tried as a kickoff returner but I would not be surprised if the Steelers tried some packages with Mendenhall and Willie Parker together.

Of course, we’ve seen reports from Dallas that have the Cowboys placing Marion Barber and rookie Felix Jones on the field together. Dallas tried this once in a while with Barber and Julius Jones but Felix has better hands and appears to have better open-field moxie than the older Jones.

One more tactic the two-RB package could revive is the no-huddle offense. The Bengals ran a slow version of a no-huddle, called the “sugar huddle” in the late ’80s when Boomer Esiason had Ickey Woods and double threat James Brooks in his backfield. That team would line up at the line of scrimmage and calls plays in a deliberate fashion, looking to take an offsides penalty when a defense tried to make a substitution.

Buffalo ran a more active and lethal version of a no-huddle in the early ’90s with its “K-gun,” a three-WR, one back set with Thurman Thomas in the backfield. Thomas could move all over the field and the Bills would exploit matchups while keeping a defense in its base or nickel packages.

The closest models to what we might see from Jason Garrett this year are the sometimes no-huddle packages the 49ers and Cowboys ran in the mid-90s. Dallas tried a power-version of this set, using FB Daryl Johnston as the flex back. He would move to the slot and sometimes line up wide. Johnston could do his damage — he made some enormous catches in a ‘96 win over the ‘49ers — but no one would ever confuse his moves with Moore’s or Jones’.

In San Francisco, the 49ers would sometimes open a game in their base set, with RB Ricky Watters and FB Tom Rathman in the backfield, and then go no-huddle, moving Watters into the slot or lining him up at flanker. Watters had played receiver while at Notre Dame and was a legitimate receiving threat. Because the defense could not substitute, it would either have to burn a time out or risk matching a LB or S on Watters in space.

Opposing safeties had to respect Jerry Rice and John Taylor’s skills, meaning Watters could run seam and post patterns from the slot and leave linebackers in his dust.

I imagine the Cowboys will use packages that more closely mimic what the 49ers did, with Jones playing Watters’ role. Since Marion Barber is a much better runner than Tom Rathman, and can pass block effectively, opposing linebackers face a conundrum: do they focus on Barber’s inside game and leave Jones in isolation or do they play the pass more and take their chances with Dallas’ run?

Whatever the case, we may have a new nickname for Felix Jones before the season is over — “Lenny.”

Written by Rafael Vela · Filed Under History, Trends | 10 Comments 

DISCLAIMER: This site and its contents are for informational and amusement purposes only. This site is NOT officially sponsored by, nor endorsed by the Dallas Cowboys football organization, its players, coaches, staff, or the National Football League. Nothing written anywhere within this site is intended to be perceived as the site being so sponsored or endorsed. All original work, articles and comment posted by Rafael Vela, Raul Villaronga or invited guest bloggers, however, are protected by applicable copyright laws. Comments written by posters visiting the site are voluntarily submitted to stimulate discussion and debate without the expectation of copyright protection on the part of those visiting posters. It is not the responsibility of this site or its authors to enforce the copyright protection of such comments posted by visitors to this site. The authors cannot assume any liability for actions taken in reliance on these articles...that would be just silly and Don Meredith (who also does not officially sponsor nor endorse this site, but we love him anyway) well, he would just laugh at you. Thank you.