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Back to School

I expect half the team to return from the bye in good working order — the offensive half.  Tony Romo will make an enormous difference.  I’m sure lots of folks were having some nasty Ryan Leaf/Chad Hutchinson/Drew Henson/Anthony Wright flashbacks on Sunday.  QBs with ratings near 100, even those with wild streaks, change your football world view — tremendously.

It was lost in the debris of the Cardinals loss, but that game was Romo’s 32nd as a starter.  News flash — he’s good:

Splitting his numbers down the middle — and that’s fair because he’s been remarkably consistent — we get this average season line:

528 att.; 341 comp.;  64.6 comp. %; 8.3 YPA; 35 TDs; 19 Int.; 97.8 Rating

W-L:  23-9,  72%

Remember this — Romo has been throwing all along.  He has not been playing because he can’t take a snap, transition the ball to his hand and get a pass off quickly under a rush.  But he’s been able to throw all along.

Which means he’s been developing timing with Roy Williams.

– Felix Jones will be back.  He’s not practicing now, as a precaution, but he’s running with no pain.  We should see him in Washington.  He’s another guy whose value became immediately apparent when he left.  Defenses had no answer for him.  He was averaging at TD a game.

And Jason Garrett didn’t use him in the first Redskins game, so he’s still a mystery to them.

– Kyle Kosier should also be back.  I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Dallas’ best rushing game of the season came in his lone start versus Green Bay.  I don’t want to make him out as a miracle worker, but offensive lines function as a unit, and losing a starter often hurts you more than his individual value, because the entire unit is weaker.  He may only be 10% better of a player than Cory Proctor, but it’s hard to put an accurate estimate on how much his loss has hurt the line’s overall play. I’d put it as more than 10%.

I do think his return makes Flozell Adams and Andre Gurode better players.  And it makes the Cowboys a more balanced running team.  They have been very right-handed so far this year.

The Cowboys offense should be humming again after the bye.  Romo’s return alone makes them much better.  Adding Jones and Kosier, not to mention the unknown potential of a Romo-Williams connection and the points should return.

And every point will be vital, because I don’t know what can be done to fix the run defense.  That’s the task facing the staff, because they’re going to be the Chargers East if they don’t figure that one out.  A source I spoke to yesterday said the front seven defenders “are having a hard time getting off blocks.”

Getting them free will determine this season — and the future employment of a lot of defensive players and coaches.

Developing…

Trick or Treat?

My brain keeps running in a mobius strip, going over the same offensive and defensive points.  I think Dallas can keep it close and perhaps win if they can pick Eli.

We’re going on faith that the youngsters can repeat the Bucs performance.  I believe in Orlando Scandrick and am gaining faith in Mike Jenkins.  But Alan Ball?  Hey, I want to believe, mister, but all I have is 30 minutes of play.

Looking at the series the last few years, it’s surprising how often the matchup has confounded the predictors.  Think back to 2005.  The first meeting, in Dallas, pitted two of the hottest offenses in the league.  The Giants had averaged 34 points in their first month.  The Cowboys had averaged 32 points in their three wins, and had dropped 33 on Philly the week before.  The over/under was high.

The game was a 16-13 nail biter.

There has only been one blowout since ‘05, that being the ‘06 Monday Night fiasco where Drew Bledsoe finally cracked and handed the reins to Tony Romo.  Regardless of injures, the Dallas defense matches up pretty well against the Giants.  I’m discounting last year’s opener because those games are outliers, which distort our views of matchups.  In the other two games the Cowboys allowed 20 and 21 points to New York.

The line is Giants by 9.  I’m not a betting guy but I’d take the points if I were.  New York has not overpowered the Cowboys at any time in the last three years.  Unless New York has discovered the perfect steroids- masking drug, I don’t see the Giants suddenly overpowering the Cowboys now — unless Dallas gives them help with turnovers.

The trick for me is getting the Cowboys to 20.  I’m having a hard time getting there.

Come on, Alan Ball…

New York 20, Dallas 16

Your turn.  What’s in your crystal ball?

P.S. — just a hunch, but I think Roy Williams emerges this week.

Williams Trade Draws Mixed Reviews

– They’re ecstatic in Detroit, where one scribe says GM Martin Mayhew “fleeced” the Cowboys.  They’re also concerned that the Lions could bungle the extra picks.

– The move is pooh-poohed by the Washington Post, where Mike Wilbon claims Williams “wouldn’t bring a ham sandwich” from most teams.

– Meanwhile, the fans are grumpy in Philly, which has pursued Williams in the offseason.

Turning Into the ‘07 Patriots in the Blink of an Eye

Update:  Multiple sources now say the deal is a 1st, 3rd and 6th for Roy Williams.

The NFL is a copycat league.  Last year the New England Patriots looked at their good but not great defense, their good but not great offense, their all world QB and decided that with limited cap space and draft picks, they would go all in on the offensive side of the ball.

They put their receiving corps on steroids, adding Dante Stallworth, Randy Moss and Wes Welker and figured their offense could outpoint any opponent.  The plan worked until the Super Bowl.

This offseason, other teams tried emulating the Pats.  The Redskins drafted a bushel of young wideouts and tight ends to supplement Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle-El.  Dallas approached the Lions and Cards for Roy Williams and Anquan Boldin.  When those moves failed, the Cowboys went all in for defense, trading for Pacman Jones and drafting Mike Jenkins and Orlando Scandrick.

In one afternoon, the Cowboys went back to plan A.  Circumstances partly forced their hand.  Jones’ recessive knucklehead gene went dominant in a Dallas hotel bathroom last week when he got drunk and duked it out with a bodyguard.  The drinking violated Jones probation and earned him a four game suspension today.

Detroit’s slow start and the firing of Matt Millen made Williams available and the Cowboys snagged him for three picks.  Consider that Dallas added Felix Jones in the draft and its clear the Cowboys will be able to field their own version of the ‘07 Patriots in about a month.

Heal quickly, Messrs. Romo, Jones and Kosier.

In the meantime, how lucky must Brad Johnson feel?  He’s working with a depleted cast, with LG Kosier missing and Jones likely out a month with a slight hamstring tear.  Still, he’ll have Owens, Witten, Williams, Crayton and Austin as passing targets.  And Marion Barber had his finest receiving game this past week, with Jones injured and the Cards bracketing T.O. and Witten.

The short term still looks daunting, but the longer view just got a lot better.

*     *     *     *     *     *     *

The Detroit News says, “it involves at least a number one pick.”

This makes the receiving corps very interesting and deep.  We now see T.O., Williams, Patrick Crayton in his #3 slot, where he should tear it up again, and Miles Austin gets to keep developing without pressure.

The kneejerk reactions amaze me.  Pat Kirwan said on NFL Radio a few minutes ago that the deal, “gives Dallas some leverage with Terrell Owens.”

Is Pat one of those scriptwriting manatees from South Park who lives in a giant tank and nudges idea balls into our collective conscious with his nose?

Earth to Pat.  The Cowboys gave T.O. a big contract extension a few months ago.  Do you really think they’re going to eat his deal now?  And isn’t the idea to improve your talent level?

And let’s stomp out the “T.O. and Roy can’t co-exist” meme before it gets started.  T.O. was eager to get Terry Glenn back last year and have a “three headed monster,” in his own words, along with Jason Witten.  He knows from his San Francisco days playing with Jerry Rice and J.J. Stokes that the more weapons, the fewer double teams. I’m guessing he’s happy.  His owner just made a big move to take the double teams away from him.

Roy Williams was pouting in Detroit and didn’t like playing Calvin Johnson’s sidekick, and here, he’s again a supporting guy.  He’s probably the third option behind Owens and Witten, who are 1 and 1A in Jason Garrett’s scheme.

The linked story says the Cowboys re-worked Williams deal, so let’s hope he gave his team the much discussed, but rarely seen hometown discount.

It’s Adjustment Time

Pro football is a game of adjustment and adaptation.  You create an edge for your team and opponents respond.  If you’re a winner, you acknowledge their changes and make your own.

We’re one quarter of the way through the season and it’s time for the Cowboys to adapt.  On offense, they had strategies that worked very effectively against the Browns and Eagles but not as well against the Packers and Redskins.

Let’s go back to the Green Bay game.  The Cowboys had one pick in the red zone when Tony Romo tried a pass to a very well covered Jason Witten. Later, just before halftime, the Cowboys were in second and goal when they lined up in a shotgun formation, with Marion Barber to Romo’s right.  Dallas faked a draw to Barber and attempted a pass to T.O. running a post. This play had worked twice for touchdowns last year, most notably against New England, when the play fake sent Rodney Harrison into a conniption fit.

One problem.  One big problem.  Green Bay knew it was coming, and had both of Romo’s receiving targets double covered.  The play went for a huge loss.

The Eagles, in the second half of their game, went double on T.O. putting a corner tight on him and a safety behind him.  Green Bay did this with Charles Woodson.  Washington did this with Shawn Springs.  It hasn’t completely slowed Owens down, but it has slowed his production down from his first outstanding six quarters of the year.

This isn’t a call to panic.  Michael Irvin faced this type of attention regularly the last few years of his career.  But it’s clear that the better defenses have caught up to some of Dallas’ tendencies.  And it’s time to see how Jason Garrett adjusts.

On defense, better strong safety play is needed.  It’s funny, two years ago Dallas had no free safety.  Then Ken Hamlin was signed and closed the deep middle.  Now, however, Pat Watkins is looking confused.  Courtney Brown is playing some at the strong but has yet to distinguish himself.

It’s almost enough to make you miss Roy Williams.  Almost.

We haven’t talked ‘09 draft, and we always talk draft here.  Mark it down — Day one next April will target two offensive linemen and a strong safety.

It’s Hard to be Humble

This has been a trend going back the the old site in the mid ’90s, but I don’t know if I’ve ever shared it with you.

Traffic goes way down on the days after a Cowboys loss.  Yesterday’s traffic was only two thirds of what we normally get on a Monday.  But most Mondays, our biggest days, people are looking for affirmation of how great their team is.

Yesterday?  Not so many people looking for confirmation that their team played poorly.

Don’t Chase Shiny Things

The Cowboys are 3-0.  Their offense is generating more rushing yards and passing yards per game than last year.  The team has just beaten two of the NFC favorites.

But they may be flawed, and a receiver in Detroit wouldn’t mind “helping” them.  With Matt Millen’s resignation not even a day old, DMN scribe Rick Gosselin has already put Roy Williams on record at his mincing, evasive best.  He’s happy to be a Lion, but his home is Texas, he says. He’s happy to stay in Detroit but he’s willing to move on.

“She’s my daughter!  She’s my sister!”  I’m a Lion!  I’m a Texan!

I’m a Lion AND a Texan!

Ugh.  All that’s missing is Jake Geddes slapping poor Roy silly.

Don’t get dragged into the nonsense.  Don’t chase the latest shiny object in the store.  Roy Williams should not be pursued.

Yes, I’m aware of the arguments.  I made them myself last December.  The Cowboys passing game slowed when T.O. got hurt.  But tally up these points:

1. Dallas pursued Williams this spring.  But they did so before the draft.
2. They also pursued him and the Arizona receivers before signing Terrell Owens to a contract extension.
3. I don’t think it was in Dallas’ long term plans to pay two huge receiver contracts.  They’re committed to Owens and judging from T.O.’s performance this summer and this September, he’s committed to them.
4. Dallas has some big extensions still to be paid, most notably Demarcus Ware’s.

Now, ponder these factoids from Detroit:

1. Former Lions OC Mike Martz questioned Williams’ work ethic on at least one occasion.
2. Williams went public last year after a Thanksgiving loss to the Packers with the complaint that he wasn’t getting involved enough in the offense.  That was the first game all year where the Lions aimed more passes at rookie Calvin Johnson than at Williams and Roy wasted no time running to the mics to complain. The Lions had just lost their third straight, after a 6-2 start, and Williams was whining about attempts.

Does this sound like a team player, or a guy who needs to be number one, at all costs?

Go back and read the linked story again.  He’s adamant that he’s still the anchor the Lions need:

“When I got drafted, the first thing I said was I want to be the one who turns this franchise around,” Williams said. “So far that hasn’t happened. But that’s still my goal, to turn this place around.”

That’s interesting Roy, because your team is 0-3.  If your goal is to “turn this place around” shouldn’t you be spending extra time in the film room, or with your QB, instead of issuing “que sera, sera,” interviews in the Dallas press?

Maybe this has something to do with Roy’s concerned nonchalance:

• Calvin Johnson, ‘08 — 17 receptions, 276 yards, 16.2 avg., 2 TDs.
• Roy Williams, ‘08 — 8 receptions, 113 yards, 14.1 avg. 1 TD.

Roy Williams isn’t the man in Detroit anymore.  Calvin Johnson has taken over.  The Lions ill fated comeback against Green Bay was driven by Johnson’s big plays, not by Williams’.  Roy says he just wants to go somewhere where he can win, but he’s also confident “he’ll get his money” and if history is any indication, he won’t hesitate to campaign for his balls.

Sorry folks, but this is what Terrell Owens was supposed to be, the petulant, self-absorbed prima donna.  Does the Cowboys offense need an another expensive set of hands so badly tha the front office and coaches will risk Owens’ happiness for a guy who clearly does not take being #2 very well?

Give me a hungry Miles Austin any day.  At least until he proves that his Green Bay performance was a fluke.

Cowboys Defense by the Numbers: Anthony Henry’s Excellent Adventure

Anthony Henry heard for much of the preseason that the Cowboys were considering moving him to safety. He showed some misgivings about the switch, seeing it as a demotion from his regular right corner spot.

Sunday night, Henry got his first extensive work as a regular safety, the move prompted by Roy Williams’ broken arm.  The Cowboys used two base formations against the Packers’ spread offense.  They went big and bold, using a standard 3-4 look with three CBs and one safety.

They also used a lot of their 4-2-5 nickel set, but with a twist.  Henry moved from the edge to linebacker, where he and Kevin Burnett patrolled the short middle.

Henry was so productive he may stay there a while.  He was sent on a host of blitzes and finished with two sacks.  He also defensed a pass when he dropped into a passing lane and tipped a pass incomplete.

The Packers did have a little success running at this set when the Cowboys deployed it on first down.  The Cowboys are a bit light up front when they have six in the box and the two LBs go 228 lbs. (Burnett) and 207 (Henry).  Dallas was careful not to use it again on run downs and thus kept guards out of Henry’s grille.

Greg Ellis complained long and loudly when he was moved to OLB.  You rarely hear him any more, because he’s having too much fun.  He now gets matched up against fullbacks, tight ends and running backs, instead of 330 lb. tackles.  His sack totals have skyrocketed as a result.

Williams is going to be out a few more weeks, so I imagine we’ll see more Anthony Henry as the dime linebacker.  If he continues to play as he did against Green Bay he might be the one campaigning for a permanent switch.

player	att.	comp.	yds.	YPA	Def.
Anthony Henry	4	2	35	8.8	1
Adam Jones	10	5	41	4.1	1
Terence Newman	6	4	39	6.5	0
Mike Jenkins	5	4	55	11.0	0

The Packers are the first team to attack Adam Jones and the results are promising.  He’ll start getting some picks if he continues to receive the attention.

Mike Jenkins looks like a rookie.  It’s very common for a new corner guy to give up big yards and then settle down halfway through a season.  He had the thankless task of covering Greg Jennings one-on-one most of the night and Jenning beat him on a slant and pivot-outside for 20 yards, which greatly inflated Jenkins’ YPA.  Jennings also did the same thing to Henry, spinning outside of him for 25 yards on the Packers first play from scrimmage.

Dallas’ Rush vs. Green Bay

• 3 men - 2 plays;
• 4 men — 28 plays;
• 5 men — 11 plays;
• 6 men — 3 plays

Notes:

– Ain’t Too Proud to Crib

The Eagles run a very effective overload blitz, where they flank two outside linebackers together outside their four man line, rush both linebackers off the edge and drop the weakside DE into coverage.

The Cowboys used variants of this overload from their 4-2-5 and their 3-4 base sets Sunday night.  The first time Bradie James got a free run at Rodgers and forced a hot throw for a five yard gain.  The second time the Cowboys got two men free and forced an incompletion.

– Don’t go Too Tall Jones on us, Jay, okay?

Jay Ratliff has a nasty punchout.  At least once a day during training camp, the 290 lb. Ratliff would bow the 355 lb. Leonard Davis backwards with a two handed stunner to the chest.  Ratliff used this devastating move on Packers RG Tony Moll in the 3rd.  The Packer thought he was set, but Ratliff’s punchout knocked him back a solid three yards.  While Moll was trying to re-establish his set, Ratliff used a swim move to get past him and sack Aaron Rodgers.

– Everybody is getting in on the fun: 

Bobby Carpenter got some reps when the Cowboys played a 3-2-6 dime package in the middle quarters.

– Chaos unveiled

The Cowboys used their chaos package in the 2nd quarter when the Packers were deep in Dallas territory.  Dallas lined up with two down linemen, Chris Canty and Jason Hatcher.  The team stood up four more potential rushers — Jay Ratliff, Kevin Burnett, Greg Ellis and Demarcus Ware — and let them roam along the line.  Just before the snap, Ratliff jumped into a three point stance on the nose.  Ware roamed out to the right end spot and Ellis and Burnett lined up directly behind Ratliff.  At the snap, the two inside LBs criss crossed and broke the middle of the Packers’ pocket.

The play produced the desired chaos and an incompletion.

Cowboys-Browns Review: How Do You Shut Down a Star?

The Cowboys defense hit its stride mid game yesterday, going almost 29 minutes, 28:58 to be exact, without allowing a Derek Anderson completion. The defense had a little help from a Braylon Edwards drop on Adam Jones, but didn’t need any more assistance.

The impressive task was shutting down Kellen Winslow Jr. who made some big grabs in the middle of Dallas’ defense on the Browns long TD drive that ended the 1st quarter and bled into the 2nd. Dallas used a variety of coverages on him in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, never allowing him to get single coverage on a linebacker or strong safety Roy Williams.

Much of the time, the Cowboys sent SOLB Greg Ellis with Winslow wherever he went. And when I write follow Winslow everywhere, I mean precisely that. Several times Winslow lined up as a wide receiver and Ellis lined up directly opposite him. Cleveland always ran in these situations and used Winslow as a decoy to gain an open an edge to run towards. The only time Winslow lined up as a traditional tight end, Ellis jammed him and passed him to ILB Bradie James, who put a second wallop on Winslow for good measure.

When Winslow lined up in the slot the Cowboys made sure had had a corner sitting in coverage with him. Anthony Henry, Adan Jones and Orlando Scandrick all took turns blanketing him. The only time Winslow caught a pass the last 40 minutes of the game came on the one play where he drew single coverage from Roy Williams. Winslow beat him on a nine yard out.

Rookie Watch

– For his stellar play outside and in the slot, Orlando Scandrick gets the rookie game ball. Cleveland has a dangerous passing attack and took some shots at Scandrick, but he was better than solid. The future looks very bright for him.

– Felix Jones gets the the runner up game ball. His big play skills should be obvious by now and his blocking isn’t bad. It’s inconsistent, however. If he can get better at it, he’ll play a lot this year.

– Mike Jenkins was busy on special teams. He was a gunner on the punt coverage unit and an edge player on the kickoff coverage squad.

– Martellus Bennett got a few series in the tight end rotation but didn’t draw a pass.

– Tashard Choice is also on the coverage units and got the last handful of carries in the game. He made two first downs.

Notes:

– A veteran game ball to Leonard Davis, who showed awesome power against the big uglies of the Cleveland defensive line. On Marion Barber’s 22 yard 2nd quarter draw, Davis punched out on 325 lb. Corey Williams and bowed the Brown backwards. Barber ran through the ample lane Davis created. Leonard’s best work came on Felix Jones’ 11 yard TD run late in the 3rd. He put a double team block on Shaun Rogers that helped roll the biggest Brown two yards off the line of scrimmage. Big Bigg then scraped off and blocked ILB Andre Davis, clearning a huge path off right guard for Jones’ first NFL touchdown.

Jay Ratliff told me in camp that Davis is the toughest offensive lineman he’s ever faced. The Browns linemen would probably tell you the same thing today.

Roy is Special

– the kickoff coverage unit yesterday:

1. Justin Rogers
2. Bobby Carpenter
3. Kevin Burnett
4. Pat Watkins
5. Keith Davis
6. Tashard Choice
7. Mike Jenkins
8. Deon Anderson
9. Orlando Scandrick
10. Nick Folk and…
11. Roy Williams

Cowboys @ Browns Preview, Part II: Stopping Cleveland’s Rush

It appears, at first glance, that the Cowboys have formidable opponents in Jamal Lewis and the Cleveland offensive line. The Browns showed great balance last year, with Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow keeping secondaries honest. This kept eight man fronts to a minimum and created space for Lewis to run.

The Ravens gave up on Lewis but he showed he still has tread left on his football tires, rushing for 1,304 yards, averaging a very good 4.4 yards per attempt.

Lewis’ season can be broken down into two halves. He started slowly, carrying only once each in early losses to New England and Oakland and missing the Dolphins game completely. He averaged a pedestrian 64 yards per game in the Browns’ first nine contests and were it not for a breakout 216 yard game against Cincinnati in week two, Lewis would have averaged just 43 yards per game in that span.

He was a different runner in the Browns’ last 7 games, averaging 113 yards per contest and notching four 100 yard games. Only once in that stretch of games was he held below 92 yards.

These numbers suggest the Browns line gelled at mid-season and began steamrolling opponents, right?

Not exactly. Let’s look at Lewis’ performances when broken down by his opponents’ run-defense rankings:

Opp. Rush Defense Rank	Gms.	Att.	Yds.	Yds. Game	Yds. Att.
1-10	6	89	258	43.0	2.9
11-20	3	66	232	77.3	3.5
21-32	6	143	773	128.8	5.4

These numbers demonstrate that the Browns’ rushing game was good but not dominant in 2007. Cleveland had six games against rush defenses ranked in the top 10 — two against Pittsburgh, two against Baltimore and one each against Arizona and New England. Cleveland ran poorly in those matches. Lewis averaged less than three yards per carry and 43 yards per game.

Against mid-level rush defenses, those ranked 11th through 20th, the Browns put up solid numbers. Lewis averaged 3.5 yards a carry and just over 77 yards per game against the Seahawks, Texans and Rams.

When the Browns played poor run defenses, they ripped them apart. In their six games against the Bengals, Raiders, Jets, Bills and 49ers, Lewis ran wild, averaging over five yards a carry and nearly 130 yards per game. It’s a coincidence that Cleveland’s toughest run opponents clotted their early schedule and the weakest ones filled their second half.

Dallas’ run defense ranked 6th last year, and is likely stronger this season. Zach Thomas looks much more instinctive and productive than Akin Ayodele did last year. He shows no effects from the head problems that shortened his ‘07 campaign.

Dallas also has better depth at nose tackle, with Tank Johnson and Marcus Spears rotating inside with Jay Ratliff. These changes make Dallas stronger up the middle, the softest area in their ‘07 rush defense.

New DL coach Todd Grantham has Spears playing his best ball ever. He looked far more active in the preseason games and made a lot of plays in the backfield.

As I wrote yesterday, Cleveland does not run a lot of power formations, because Kellen Winslow lines up as a wide receiver so often. The Browns rely on second TE Steve Heiden, a 270 lb. load, to block on the edge when they line up in two-TE sets. When the Browns go standard, 250 lb. fullback Lawrence Vickers provides interference for Lewis.

Because Winslow blocks so poorly and because Dallas’ run defense is sound, I’ll again contend that we won’t see Roy Williams much on Sunday, as the Cowboys probably won’t keep an eighth man in the box. That player is better used in coverage. Dallas has the size at OLB to match up to Cleveland’s line and lead blocker with its standard 3-4 front.

I would not be surprised to see Dallas line up the strong side OLB, which is usually Greg Ellis, out in space on Winslow, to jam his release. Ellis would then turn Winslow over to the CB behind him and pursue runs inside or to the weakside. He would be counted on to beat Winslow at the point of attack on any outside runs his way.

In any case, don’t expect Dallas to go overboard trying to shut Lewis down. As the chart demonstrates, he and his teammates have trouble against good rush defenses, and Dallas has a good one.

Next: Dallas’ passing offense versus the Browns pass defense.

Three Factoids That May Shape the Cowboys-Browns Bottom Line

1. New DL coach Todd Grantham is already paying dividends, getting Marcus Spears to play far above his Kacey Rogers-era level and getting Tank Johnson into opposing backfields with regularity this preseason.

He may pay another dividend — as a spy. Grantham was Cleveland’s defensive coordinator last year and has as much insight into the Browns defensive capabilities and thinking as anybody in the Cowboys meeting room. I’m guessing he’s spent some time talking to the offensive coaches the last two weeks.

2. We’ve heard since OTAs that the Cowboys are working on nickel and especially dime packages that line up Anthony Henry inside, on opposing tight ends.

You won’t have to wait long to see them. As I pointed out in Thurday’s piece on Jason Witten, the Browns use TE Kellen Winslow Jr. as a wide receiver. He was “flexed” off the line, or lined up as a receiver on 75% of Cleveland’s plays last year, easily the most for any NFL tight end.

Dallas usually slides Terence Newman inside when it plays nickel, but the Browns signed speedster Donte Stallworth this offseason to pair with Braylon Edwards. In effect, they’re running a three-WR base set, with the 6′4″, 250 lb. Winslow as their slot option.

There’s no way Dallas is going to stay in their base and put Roy Williams in coverage against Winslow. The Cowboys may open in their nickel with Henry over the tight end and Newman and Adam Jones lining up over the wideouts.

3. How well would the Cowboys do against their offense? And vice versa? I’ve watched the Browns the last three weeks and notice their packages and offensive plays greatly mirror Dallas’. Cleveland OC Rob Chudzinski and Cowboys OC Jason Garrett are both aggressive play callers with gunslinger QBs who like to throw down the field.

Tony Romo had the third-highest percentage of bad decisions among starting QBs last year. Derek Anderson had the second-highest percentage. The difference is that Romo was more accurate and had a solidly higher YPA and a significantly higher SYPA (success % times YPA). Whichever defense is better able to throw their opposing QB out of his confort zone and press him into more bad decisions will have a huge edge.

4. Bonus crumb — A review of the Vikings video showed Alan Ball making several tackles as a gunner on the punt coverage teams. With Miles Austin and Sam Hurd hurt, Ball bought himself a longer stay with his special special-teams play.

Fun with SF ‘08 IV: How Ken Hamlin Got His Groove Back and Saved the Secondary

Longtime BSR readers know I’ve been using Scientific Football to bash the Cowboys’ inept free safety play under Bill Parcells. For whatever reason, the Tuna neglected the spot, trying to force a strong safety, Keith Davis, into the spot, and later trying to force feed rookie Pat Watkins into the position.

Both projects failed. Here’s a chart showing the free safety direct coverage play in ‘05 under Davis, ‘06 under Watkins, and last season under Ken Hamlin. (SF also tracks deep assists, where the safeties roll up in coverage to help corners.)

Player	Att.	Stops	Succ. %	Yards	YPA	Rank
Keith Davis ‘05	31	14	45.2	485	15.6	36th
Pat Watkins ‘06	11	4	36.4	227	20.6	36th
Ken Hamlin ‘07	22	13	59.1	107	4.9	*

After ‘05 and ‘06 it didn’t seem possible that the Cowboys’ free safety play could get any worse. Davis and Watkins ranked 36th among 36 safeties in their respective years. In other words, the Cowboys had the worst free safety play in the NFL during that time. Add in Roy Williams’ suspect coverage skills and Dallas had a gaping hole in its deep middle.

That’s not a good way to build a Super Bowl push. When Hamlin was signed in April ‘07 I wrote that regardless of whether the Cowboys got the mid-pack ‘06 Hamlin or the top-5 rated ‘05 Hamlin, they were due to improve.

Look at how much they improved. Joyner didn’t list the direct coverage stats for free safeties in this year’s book but only the late Sean Taylor produced a direct coverage YPA better than Hamlin’s. With Hamlin in the deep middle the one-play 70 yard TD pass drives Cowboys’ fans witnessed in ‘05 and ‘06 disappeared.

Hamlin’s yards allowed total is less than one quarter of what Davis allowed in ‘05. It’s less than half of Watkins’ ‘06 total. (And remember that Watkins was benched in mid-season, so his totals are only a fragment of the team total.)

If Dallas can keep its cornerbacks healthy, it can be a real force with Hamlin in the middle, no matter what type of year Roy Williams has at strong safety. Hamlin missed OTAs bargaining for a better contract but when you look at these numbers it’s hard to begrudge him one penny of his new deal.

Toast Redux? Miami Cuts Keith Davis

In the glory seasons of ‘92 and ‘93 Jimmy Johnson was so certain of his starting depth that he dedicated roster spots exclusively to marginal players who excelled on special teams. Most notable was Elvis Patterson, known at his previous stops as “Toast” because he was burned so often when he played in the secondary. Toast was a special teams demon, and he was teamed with Kenny Gant, Matt Vanderbeek and others to form an effective coverage unit.

The chance of a Toast deja vu arose today when Miami put Keith Davis and his Amazing Bullet-Attracting Technicolor Backside back on the market, releasing him just before the Dolphins left for Miami to play their pre-season finale.

My initial reaction is no. The Cowboys have seen more of the inconsistency that hurt the coverage teams last year. However, we need to remember that Davis was on the field when the special teams had their late season problems in ‘06 and in ‘07, with Bruce DeHaven and Bruce Read. It’s not as if the units were strong and collapsed when Davis left.

What’s more, the other guys on Dallas’ core special teams list — Kevin Burnett, Bobby Carpenter, Justin Rogers and Pat Watkins, are mostly seen as having the opportunity to become future starters, or at least fill in capably if the starters ahead of them are injured. Dallas knows Davis offers little value as a free safety. He had the worst coverage metrics of any starting safety when he started in the Parcells days.

He seemed miscast and backed up Roy Williams capably last year, but obtaining him likely means cutting somebody like Courtney Brown. Would you be willing to give up on his future for the possibility of short term gain with Davis back in a Cowboys uniform?

Discuss.

Fun With SF ‘08, Or Why Anquan Boldin Isn’t Worth A Huge Deal

A few months ago, when the Arizona Cardinals were in a contract impasse with WR Larry Fitzgerald, I got a call from a source who wanted to discuss trade packages Dallas might assemble for him. This source has worked in the business a long time and has a very good idea of player value.

We discussed a 1st round pick and a quality player off the Dallas roster as a starting point. When I mentioned that this might remind lots of Cowboys fans about the Joey Galloway deal and invite a backlash, the source was quick and firm with his retort: “Larry Fitzgerald isn’t Joey Galloway.”

The question recurs now that the Cowboys have seen their back WR roster thinned by injury, with Miles Austin and Isaiah Stanback on the mend and with Fitzgerald’s WR partner Anquan Boldin screaming for a new deal. The Dallas papers invite trade proposals on a regular basis, with one scribe suggesting Dallas offer a 1st rounder, Marcus Spears, and Miles Austin for Boldin and a 3rd.

Fair? Not according to the metrics in the brand spanking new copy of Scientific Football 2008. K.C. Joyner’s latest is easily his best, with more nuance than any of his previous books. (I highly recomment buying it at your bookstore on or his website, where you can get an instantaneous electronic download.)

One area of greater detail is wide receiver YPA stats. In the past, Joyner has compiled simple YPA numbers, looking at attempts and yards against opposing defenses. This year, he not only looks at a receiver’s production, but the quality of the corners he’s beating. Joyner takes his cornerback YPAs and breaks NFL CBs into three categories: Red corners have YPAs under 7; numbers like this put them in the top third of the league in any given year. Yellow corners are those with YPAs between 7-9. They are what you might call “league average” corners. Green corners are those with YPAs above 9. They’re the bottom third, the guys you need to fill out rosters and nickel or dime packages, but would replace if you could.

Joyner notes that Boldin and Fitzgerald have almost identical raw YPAs. In ‘07, they were identical, with both receivers posting very respectable 9.2s, which tied them for 17th, just behind Randy Moss and just ahead of Detroit’s Roy Williams.

Not all YPAs are created equal, however, as Joyner’s ratings-per-color-level show:

Player	vs. Red CBs	vs. Yellow CBs	vs. Green CBs
Larry Fitzgerald	9.1	8.5	13.6
Anquan Boldin	4.9	7.1	15.6

These metrics tells a very different story. Fitzgerald, as we can see, beats everybody, red, yellow and green. His 9.1 versus red corners ranked 5th in that category, right behind some guy named Terrell Owens. Boldin’s 4.9? Not so good; that number tied him for 47th.

While their production numbers are almost identical, let’s not kid ourselves. Fitzgerald is the number one in Arizona’s attack. Boldin is number two. Teams assign their best corners to Fitzgerald — and he beats them anyway. Boldin is very effective at beating 2nd and 3rd tier corners, exactly as a number two should, but when Arizona has faced teams with two top quality corners, or when teams have assigned their top guy to Boldin, he’s struggled.

What can we take from this?

1. For all the abuse he’s taken in the press, Arizona GM Rod Graves absolutely made the right decision. He paid Fitzgerald number one money and is paying Boldin top dollar for a number two, as he should.
2. My guy was on the money this Spring. Larry Fitzgerald isn’t Joey Galloway. He’s much better. (Galloway, if you’re wondering, finished 3rd overall in ‘07 raw YPAs, with a 10.9, but was a lousy 53rd versus red corners, with a 4.6 average. This tells me Tampa Bay faced some poor secondaries in ‘07.)
3. These numbers should temper the outrageous packages we hear from the gallery for Boldin and Detroit’s Roy Williams. The Cowboys have a legitimate number one in Owens. The thinking pre-draft was to obtain a young receiver who could complement him and eventually replace him. Both Boldin and Williams can certainly complement T.O. but neither shows the top end performance to take his place. Williams’ YPA versus red corners was a poor 4.3, which ranked 58th overall. It’s not that much better than Patrick Crayton’s number.
4. That doesn’t mean that Boldin and Williams don’t have value. But Jerry Jones’ unwillingness to pay a number one price for a number two shows that he has good data at his disposal. If Dallas felt a real need to pursue Boldin, I’d offer Arizona a number one, but no more. Given the fact that Boldin is unhappy with getting $4 million a year, which seems like a fair salary to me given his game, I doubt that he would pout any less if the Cowboys got him and refused to re-work his deal. For that reason, I don’t think he’s worth the potential headache.

If Dallas wants to make the proverbial big splash and get a complement who can be a number one if T.O. gets injured, they’re better off asking about Steve Smith, who beats red corners for an 8.4 YPA.

Me? I’ll wait for Miles Austin to complete his rehab. If he can beat yellow and green corners, and not cost the Cowboys high picks and big money, he’s the best value.

Stop Living in the Past

I see the Kneejerk Chorus on other sites calling for Larry Allen to be re-signed to fill in for the injured Kyle Kosier. I’ll bet some of them even feel Allen could replace Kosier.

This isn’t 1998 folks. It’s 2008. Allen was an all-timer in his time, but that time has passed. Joyner’s pass protection metrics show that Kosier surrendered 2.5 sacks in 2007. That puts him in a tie for 29th, or mid-pack at his position. Allen gave up 4.5, tying him for 53rd. And Justin Blalock, the darling of so many draftniks here? He ranked dead last among guards, giving up 9.5 sacks.

Given that he’s been in retirement the past few months, I doubt a rusty Larry Allen could step in and be any better than the backup options Dallas has available.

Early Scouting ‘09 — Look to Offensive Line

Before camp started, a source told me that offensive line was probably the top priority going into the ‘08 campaign, as the Cowboys had concerns about their depth.

That same source told me today that line depth remains the biggest area of concern on the team.  I wrote last week that Cory Procter and James Marten struggled against the Chargers and Joe Berger played poorly against the Broncos.  Doug Free looks solid at LT but Pat McQuistan has been hot-and-cold under Hudson Houck’s tutelage.  He looked more stable to my eyes against Denver but looked more consistent in ‘07.

Offensive and defensive lines are the hardest positions to find, at any time of the year so don’t look for Dallas to get lucky plucking anybody off waivers.  Any young lineman who hits the market will have multiple claims put on him and the Cowboys have one of the last slots in the claim order.

Hope that the linemen stay healthy again this year, especially at the center and guard positions.

Other tasty crumbs from the source:

– the Cowboys are NOT nervous about their WR play, even with Miles Austin’s setback.  “They want to see the young guys play,” I was told.  I’ll say it again.  Watch Isaiah Stanback carefully against Houston.  He’ll get a lot more reps with the second unit and while he’s not as far along as Austin, he is improving.  Hold off on those Anquan Boldin trade packages, folks, at least for the time being.

– Dallas is happy with the safety play as well.  Take an early bow, Roy Williams.  And does this mean that Courtney Brown has a chance to make the final roster?  He made some plays on the line of scrimmage late against Denver, knifing in from the edge to spill a Broncos runner in the backfield.  On the other hand, he was also victimized by a long bootleg pass on a 4th-and-1 play.  These next two games are huge for him.

– I asked about the John Beck-to-Dallas rumors and was told that the characterizations from the Miami press, that Dallas had shown “mild interest” were “a nice choice of words.”  I take it there’s not much to this story.

Camp Cowboys: Compare and Contrast, ‘07 vs. ‘08

It’s hard to get a definite read on anything after three days of camp. Hudson Houck laughed when I asked him on Saturday what, if anything he could tell me after one day in pads? “That I still have 22 practices to go,” was his reply.

Still, Cowboys fans hate deferred gratification. Especially after 12 years without a playoff victory. With that in mind, I went back one year to see where the team was at the same stage in their Phillips Over San Antonio ‘07 Tour. This year’s tour is already looking much better. Consider:

– At quarterback, Tony Romo was looking sharp but everybody was wondering if his dropped ball in Seattle would harm his development. Now, he’s trying to stay out of the tabloids. Call this one a wash.

– At running back, Dallas was staying with the status quo, starting Julius Jones and rotating Marion Barber into the lineup. This year, the unit looks faster and deeper. Felix Jones and Tashard Choice have not played pro games yet, but I can already say with confidence that Felix will be a better receiver than Julius and I’ll take Choice already over Tyson Thompson. Score: plus one for the ‘08 squad.

– On the offensive line, the Cowboys were waiting for starters Flozell Adams and Marc Columbo to return from knee scopes. Jim Molinaro and Pat McQuistan were manning the tackle spots. This year, McQuistan is at right tackle and second year man Doug Free is at the left tackle spot. The starting lineup looks set. Score: plus one for the ‘08 squad, based on health and continuity.

– At wide receiver, Terry Glenn was about to drop off the roster with a knee injury, not to return until January. Isaiah Stanback was in a walking boot. This year, Glenn is gone again, perhaps for good. Stanback is playing, though he’s still far from polished. Sam Hurd looks better, but if he’s not displacing Patrick Crayton, he’s risen to his level. That’s a step down from ‘06, when T.O., Glenn and Crayton were the trio, but a minor step up from last year, when Hurd was an unknown. Score: a wash

– At tight end, Jason Witten was a sure thing and Anthony Fasano was the clear backup. Tony Curtis was a promising backup. This year, Curtis is the number two. Martellus Bennett has replaced Fasano, who’s now a Dolphin. He’s a big, talented player, but nobody knows how Bennett will play this year. Score: minus one, because of inexperience.

– On the defensive line, Jason Hatcher’s promising start was wiped out by a hamstring injury. Jason Ferguson was the starting nose tackle. Chris Canty and Marcus Spears were eager to wipe out underachiever labels. This year, Canty and Jay Ratliff are set at RE and NT, after stepping up their respective games last year. Tank Johnson replaces the departed Ferguson. He shows some explosion in drills, but I’ll wait until I see him in some real games before I rate him against Ferguson. Score: plus one for ‘08, because there is far less uncertainty this year.

– At linebacker in ‘07 it was Demarcus Ware and a lot of questions. Greg Ellis was rehabbing a torn Achilles and was grumpy about his contract. Anthony Spencer was an unknown rookie. Inside, Bradie James was claiming his poor ‘06 was due to playing overweight in Bill Parcells’ scheme. Kevin Burnett was an injury prone enigma and Bobby Carpenter had the eau de bust about him.

This year, many experts are touting the Cowboys’ LB corps as the league’s best. Ware and Ellis both had double digit sacks last year. Spencer looked good in a backup role. James bounced back with a steady season. Burnett found a home in the nickel, where he excelled in coverage. And the Cowboys added Zack Thomas to replace Ayodele, who’s also joined Parcells and Tony Sparano in Miami. Score: plus one for the ‘08 guys.

– In the secondary, the Cowboys were hoping for better health and play at several positions. Anthony Henry was trying to come back from a knee injury that hobbled him in ‘06. Terence Newman was days away from a plantar fascia tear. Ken Hamlin was a low budget signing from Seattle but hardly a sure thing. He had a so-so ‘06 after missing ten games in ‘05 with a severe head injury. It was far from clear if he could regain his outstanding ‘04 form. One year ago, Roy Williams was the surest bet in the secondary.

Today, he’s the most maligned. Hamlin earned his first Pro Bowl berth in ‘07. Newman overcame his heel injury and earned his first trip to Honolulu. Henry was leading the league in picks when he suffered a high ankle sprain that cost him six starts.

In addition, the Cowboys have Adam Jones and first rounder Mike Jenkins replacing Jacques Reeves and Nate Jones. Score: plus two for the ‘08 team, based on better health, and much greater depth.

Overall, the ‘08 team looks much deeper and has far fewer question marks than Wade 1.0. The injury questions at offensive tackle, outside linebacker and cornerback are gone. You could pencil in the entire starting 22 for Dallas today, where you could not do so for several positions last year.

It’s far too early to hit the giddy button, but there’s clearly far less reason to even consider locating the panic button this time around. Let’s hope things stay this way.

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