Browse > Home /

Cowboys vs. Bucs 2nd Half Thread

October 26, 2008

Here it is.

Written by Rafael Vela · Filed Under Threads | 360 Comments 

Bucs @ Cowboys - 1st Half Thread

October 26, 2008

Looking around the division, the Eagles host the Falcons and rookie QB Matt Ryan, and the Redskins are playing at the Lions. In a late start, the Giants play at the Steelers.

The Cowboys host the Buccaneers and need to clear their minds of the nightmare visions known as the past two week’s games.

The ‘Skins obviously have the easiest path. The Cowboys needs to pick it up here to keep from dropping to .500 …

Written by Raul Villaronga · Filed Under Threads | 139 Comments 

Fun With SF ‘08 II, or why T.O. is Happy With Jason Garrett as O.C.

August 26, 2008

At Oxnard, I asked Jason Garrett to describe the Cowboys’ offensive philosophy. “People get caught up in names,” I said. “They say this team runs a West Coast offense and that team runs a run-and-shoot. What offensive schools are in your playbook?”

He didn’t give it much thought. “People everywhere in the league run the same things,” he said. “It comes down to putting your people in the right situations…”

Terrell Owens, I think, would heartily agree. When Wade Phillips took over the team he remarked that the ‘06 Cowboys had used Owens almost exclusively at the X position (split end) and that his Cowboys would motion Owens a lot more and try to create more of those favorable matchups that Garrett mentioned.

Mission accomplished. K.C. Joyner’s metrics in his brand new Scientific Football 2008 demonstrate how effective Garrett was at the matchup game with Owens last year and why he’s considered such a hotshot assistant.

Owens, as I mentioned yesterday, had a top-tier overall YPA for 2007. Among receivers who were thrown the ball over 100 times, Owens ranked 2nd behind Reggie Wayne in this metric. And he wasn’t padding his numbers beating up on weaklings, at least not all the time. Owens ranked 4th in YPA when facing top-tier “red” cornerbacks.

A look at the types of matchups Owens faced shows Garrett’s skill. Joyner breaks WR attempts into five categories — attempts versus red, yellow and green corners; attempts versus unranked CBs (those who did not have enough plays to make his final CB rankings) and attempts versus non-CBs.

Owens had 139 attempts last year, meaning Dallas threw him over nine passes per game in his 15 games. Here they are broken down by class:

Terrell Owens Attempts % of Att. YPA
vs. red CBs
 18 13 9.4
vs. yellow CBs
 47 34 7.3
vs. green CBs
 18 13 10.4
vs. non-rated CBs
 12 8 4.8
vs. non CBs
 44 32 13.3
total
 139 100 9.7

Note the solid numbers across the board, with the notable exception of those 12 attempts against Nate Jones-caliber CBs. It’s almost as if T.O. was bored playing against those guys.

The more important stat is the remarkably high percentage of attempts against non-cornerbacks. Teams knew every week that Owens was Dallas’ prime receiving weapon. And with Jason Witten motioning so much into the backfield (he ranked near the bottom among TEs last year in plays where he was “flexed” or used as a WR) you would think secondaries could key on Owens even more.

Yet Garrett was able to get Owens 74 attempts, 53% of his total, against green-level CBs, non-rated CBs or non CBs. And Owens tore up safeties and linebackers. His 13.3 YPA against them ranked only behind Randy Moss’ and Joey Galloway among full-time starters.

When you look at the tiered YPAs the OCs who can best exploit matchups jump out. I mentioned yesterday that Joey Galloway had a poor YPA against red CBs, yet he ranked 3rd overall in raw YPAs. That’s because Jon Gruden got him 54% of his attempts against green-CBs, non-rated CBs and non-CBs.

Want to know why the Patriots set so many offensive records last year? Look at John McDaniel’s success in creating favorable matchups for his guys. Wes Welker had 138 attempts last year and 90 of them, a solid 65% were against non-cornerbacks

Think about that. Teams knew Welker was the Patriots’ second option after Randy Moss and yet they could only get a cornerback of any quality on him one third of the time.

The best OCs can get their best weapons into favorable matchups regularly. Garrett’s success in creating such matchups for T.O. last year is one big reason why Owens was so eager to re-sign with the team. And it’s one more reason why I believe the offense will continue to be successful without a big-name #2 receiver.

I want to thank K.C. Joyner again for allowing me free rein with his stats. Scientific Football 2008 and his new book “Blindsided” can be ordered at: http://thefootballscientist.com

Written by Rafael Vela · Filed Under Training Camp | 58 Comments 

Glenn Situation Could Be Resolved Today

July 23, 2008

The Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports that the Cowboys and WR Terry Glenn may resolve his situation today, either finding a common ground that will keep the veteran on the roster or release him.

I was put on alert yesterday that news could be forthcoming shortly but the team and Glenn clearly could not work something out.  I was told by a source that “Glenn is better than any player available on the street,” suggesting that anybody pining for a Jeremy Shockey-like trade to fill the Cowboys #2 spot will be sorely disappointed.

– I was also told that the Brett Favre situation could heat up in the next few days.  One source maintains that Tampa Bay remains the most likely landing place, because they appear willing to give Green Bay the first-day pick the Packers seek in exchange for Favre.

Written by Rafael Vela · Filed Under News | 50 Comments 

NFC Crystal Ball

June 22, 2008

The preseason magazines have started to appear. We used to rate them here, but gave up because they have this nasty habit of taking last year’s playoff field, adding maybe one “surprise team,” though they often have none.

As we’ve pointed out time and again here, there are on average four teams that go from losing records to the playoffs each year. Most of them have been in the NFC this decade.

Let’s ignore the magazines this time around and make our own picks.

I’ve nominated the Vikings as my new standout team. But let’s take it farther.

1. Pick the six playoff teams.

2. Who will be new to the playoff dance?

3. Any bounce-back teams?

4. Who are ’08’s big droppers?

I’ll take first crack.

1. The playoff six:

  1. Cowboys
  2. Vikings
  3. Saints
  4. Cardinals
  5. Giants
  6. Panthers

2. I have four new playoff teams — the Vikings, Cards, Saints and Panthers. There has been roughly 50% turnover from year to year league wide and I’m seeing more churn in the NFC, which has been the more volatile conference.

My final slot came down to the Eagles and Panthers. I’m giving Carolina the nod today, though I’d like to see Jake Delhomme’s health before I lock this one in.

3. My two NFC loser-to-playoff teams are the Saints and Panthers, with the Vikings and Cardinals moving from 8-8 to the post-season. I also see San Francisco yo-yoing back into contention but just missing the playoffs.

4. Big droppers?

a. The Redskins are trying too much change. They’ve lost their head coach and their DC, which means they’re putting in new offensive and defensive systems. They’re also relying a lot on their first-day receiver and tight end draftees;

b. The Packers should be good but what do we really know about Aaron Rogers. Their division will get tougher, with the Vikings and Bears improving. I don’t see them falling to 6-10 but 9-7 could happen;

c. The Seahawks have lived off their division’s weakness; they’re the only Western team to finish above .500 since 2003. They won 9 games in ‘06 and 10 in ‘07. I see them dropping out of the divisional penthouse with the Cards and 49ers improving. I’ve been burned before picking the Cards but they’ve been building their talent base and can win that division at 10-6 or 9-7.

d. The Bucs jumped back into the race last year by riding their defense. That offense doesn’t scare me. They’ve have 83 quarterbacks, which means they don’t have one. How much longer can Joey Galloway carry that offense?

Your turn.

Written by Rafael Vela · Filed Under NFL | 29 Comments 

DISCLAIMER: This site and its contents are for informational and amusement purposes only. This site is NOT officially sponsored by, nor endorsed by the Dallas Cowboys football organization, its players, coaches, staff, or the National Football League. Nothing written anywhere within this site is intended to be perceived as the site being so sponsored or endorsed. All original work, articles and comment posted by Rafael Vela, Raul Villaronga or invited guest bloggers, however, are protected by applicable copyright laws. Comments written by posters visiting the site are voluntarily submitted to stimulate discussion and debate without the expectation of copyright protection on the part of those visiting posters. It is not the responsibility of this site or its authors to enforce the copyright protection of such comments posted by visitors to this site. The authors cannot assume any liability for actions taken in reliance on these articles...that would be just silly and Don Meredith (who also does not officially sponsor nor endorse this site, but we love him anyway) well, he would just laugh at you. Thank you.