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They Love the Nightlife

Big pressure?  A season in the balance?  A national stage?

Should feel like home to these guys.

Tony Romo made his first career start on a Sunday night in Carolina two seasons ago, with his team teetering at 3-3 after the Giants had cleaned their clocks on a Monday Night.

He overcame a rough start to close out a 35-14 win and start the Cowboys on a five-of-six run which propelled them into the playoffs.

This Sunday, Romo will again face a so-called “must win” gave with his team at 5-4 after the Giants cleaned their clocks at the Meadowlands.

The schedule makers may have put Dallas in their comfort zone:  they are 10-1 in the Romo era in prime-time games.  They were 6-0 on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday nights last year and are 2-0 this year.  The only defeat was the 42-17 spanking the Saints applied in ‘06.

What’s more, the Cowboys have posted some of their biggest wins in these games.  Here’s the record for night games with Romo under center:

2006

• Dallas 35, Carolina 14 - Sunday night
• New Orleans 42, Dallas 17 - Sunday night;
• Dallas 38, Atlanta 28 - Saturday night;

2007

• Dallas 45, New York 35 - Sunday night;
• Dallas 34, Chicago 10 - Sunday night;
• Dallas 25, Buffalo 24 - Monday night;
• Dallas 38, Philadelphia 17 - Sunday night;
• Dallas 37, Green Bay 27 - Thursday night;
• Dallas 20, Carolina 13 - Saturday night;

2008

• Dallas 41, Philadelphia 37 - Monday night;
• Dallas 27, Green Bay 16 - Sunday night;

Overall

• Thursday night:  1-0
• Saturday night: 2-0
• Sunday night: 5-1
• Monday night: 2-0

Average score:  Dallas 32, opponent 24

Will this record translate into a win against the Redskins?  Who knows.  Some of these games have been the ultimate Pepto evenings.  Last year’s Buffalo game and this year’s Philly game come immediately to mind.  It does seem that the Cowboys offense generally focuses better in these games.

If the profile holds, we’re due a shootout of the Landry/Gibbs vintage.

Don’t Curb Your Enthusiasm, Adapt It

I started in the Cowboys blogging business before the term blog exited.  My first campaign covering the team was in ‘95, when the won their last Super Bowl, so I have a nice stack of tapes with every game in that 19 game title drive.

And I look at them from time to time, to recall what a title team looks like.

When I do, I’m reminded that there are many ways to a championship.  I say that because the defense on that ‘95 team was just not very good.  Oh, it had talent, but it was very uneven and inconsistent.  Dallas had two superstars in its secondary — Deion Sanders and Darren Woodson.  It also had Larry Brown and James Washington, who were okay, but not very good.

The nickelback was often Bill Bates, whom 49ers OC Marc Trestman matched up with Jerry Rice in November.  The results were not pretty.

Dallas signed Scott Case, the Webster’s definition of band-aid, to add depth to safety. Case was known as a big hitter, but he hit mostly air that year because he was too slow to slam flesh-and-blood receivers.

The Cowboys linebackers were awful that year.  The Cowboys had signed former Oilers’ DC and LB coach Jim Eddy — the scapegoat of that epic ‘93 playoff fail versus Buffalo — to oversee them.

They jettisoned Eddy as soon as the season was over.

The Cowboys had a pass rush, but it lost a lot of juice when Charles Haley’s back gave out.  He didn’t play in the playoffs, made a brief cameo in the Super Bowl, and then was done as a Dallas dominator.  The Cowboys relied on Tony Tolbert’s creaky knees, which held up for a career year, and on manchild Leon Lett, who went nuts down the stretch;  he blew up the Eagles line in the divisional playoffs and picked off a Brett Favre screen pass in the NFC Championship Game.

Beyond that, the ‘95 Cowboys defense was big plays and a lot of crossed fingers.  It relied on its offense to carry it.  When Troy Aikman went out five minutes into game five, the Cowboys offense sputtered with Wade Wilson at the controls and they lost their 4-0 record to a 1-3 Redskins team that riddled their Deion-deficient secondary.

That defense never recovered from the whipping the 49ers put on them in week ten, when Trestman spread the offense, threw traffic at Sanders and got Rice to run amok on the opposite side of the field against Dallas’ linebackers and safeties.  The Cowboys won in Oakland the following week but held on in the 4th quarter when the ancient Vince Evans almost overcame a huge early Dallas lead.  Woodson’s late pick prevented a 24 point Raiders rally.

Barry Switzer was crucified for going twice on 4th and 1 from his own 29 in the game fourteen loss to the Eagles.  But he called this play twice because he didn’t trust his defense to stop the Eagles from driving for the game winner.  And he was right to doubt them.

Rodney Hampton and his Giants mates ripped the Cowboys for 244 rushing yards the following week and the Cowboys used a controversial holding penalty against New York as the springboard for a late, game-winning field goal.

The D got a reprieve in the Philly playoff rematch;  Darren Woodson knocked Rodney Peete out of the game early and Randall Cunningham, who had spent the entire week in Las Vegas to attend his child’s birth, was unprepared to step in.   The Lett pick and Larry Brown’s late interception slowed Favre down just enough to let the offense outscore Green Bay.  Dallas had no answer for TE Keith Jackson or Green Bay’s deep passing game, which roasted Brown to a crisp.

The Steelers controlled the clock and possession for the final 40 minutes of the Super Bowl.  An ability to stop the Steelers inside the red zone and Larry Brown’s sure hands on two gimme picks kept the Steelers from ever catching up to an early 13-0 Dallas lead.

That team won on offense.  The Triplets were in their prime.  Jay Novacek’s back was healthy.  The offensive line was dominating.

But don’t let a title cloud the fact that that team was one sided.  It outscored people.  The dominant overall performances from ‘92 and ‘93 were not in the cards.

This year’s Cowboys team reminds me a lot of that one.  It has a turbo-charged offense and a so-so defense.  There are some playmakers on the defensive side of the ball — Jay Ratliff, Demarcus Ware, Terence Newman and Ken Hamlin — and some youngsters who intrigue — Orlando Scandrick and Mike Jenkins.  Bradie James and Zach Thomas appear when their linemen protect them, which is not often, but they’re there to keep opponents under control.  Dominance is not in their vocabulary.

It may seem heretical to compare this offense to that one, but this year’s model has a greater margin for error.  It has far more tools at its disposal.  The ‘95 line was far more consistent, but turn your attention to the skill positions.  Emmitt Smith took over 90% of the carries that year because Sherman Williams was his backup.

This year’s team has Felix Jones.  That’s no contest.

That offense had Michael Irvin, in the middle of his career year.

It also had Kevin Williams opposite him and Corey Fleming as the 3rd receiving option.

Kevin Williams might be the 5th best receiver on this team.   He can’t compete with Roy Williams or Patrick Crayton and I’d take Miles Austin’s future over Williams’ past.

Fleming?  Sam Hurd is better than him.  And by that I mean Sam Hurd today, rehabbing in a walking boot, is better than Corey Fleming.

The ‘95 Cowboys offense was a blunt instrument, relentless and steady.  This year’s team is more like an exotic sports car, flashy, but prone to breakdowns.  But it also has more horsepower under its hood.

Don’t misunderstand me.  I’m not saying this year’s team will get on a roll.  It may lay down in Washington ten days from now and fade quietly away.  If it does right the season, it will proceed as the ‘95 team did, scoring in bunches and counting on the defense to hold the bad guys at 20 points.

It will not win the way the ‘92 team did and it will not win the way the ‘07 Giants did.  They got their turnovers under control and rode the defense — Eli’s guys scored 20, 21, 23 and 17 points in their title run.  Nobody will ever compare that offense with the ’80s 49ers or the ’90s Cowboys.

I’m sure the team knows this.  Get ready for the return of down-the-field passing, to T.O. and Roy Williams.  Get ready for heavier doses of Felix.  Get ready for Tony Romo to do his Joe Namath impersonation.  Get ready for Jason Garrett to channel his inner Sid Gillman.  He’s calling deep and Romo will throw deep — a lot.

This is how it has to be. Expecting the Cowboys to win any other way will bend your mind out of shape.

Adjust your expectations accordingly.  Your nervous system will thank you.

Back to School

I expect half the team to return from the bye in good working order — the offensive half.  Tony Romo will make an enormous difference.  I’m sure lots of folks were having some nasty Ryan Leaf/Chad Hutchinson/Drew Henson/Anthony Wright flashbacks on Sunday.  QBs with ratings near 100, even those with wild streaks, change your football world view — tremendously.

It was lost in the debris of the Cardinals loss, but that game was Romo’s 32nd as a starter.  News flash — he’s good:

Splitting his numbers down the middle — and that’s fair because he’s been remarkably consistent — we get this average season line:

528 att.; 341 comp.;  64.6 comp. %; 8.3 YPA; 35 TDs; 19 Int.; 97.8 Rating

W-L:  23-9,  72%

Remember this — Romo has been throwing all along.  He has not been playing because he can’t take a snap, transition the ball to his hand and get a pass off quickly under a rush.  But he’s been able to throw all along.

Which means he’s been developing timing with Roy Williams.

– Felix Jones will be back.  He’s not practicing now, as a precaution, but he’s running with no pain.  We should see him in Washington.  He’s another guy whose value became immediately apparent when he left.  Defenses had no answer for him.  He was averaging at TD a game.

And Jason Garrett didn’t use him in the first Redskins game, so he’s still a mystery to them.

– Kyle Kosier should also be back.  I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Dallas’ best rushing game of the season came in his lone start versus Green Bay.  I don’t want to make him out as a miracle worker, but offensive lines function as a unit, and losing a starter often hurts you more than his individual value, because the entire unit is weaker.  He may only be 10% better of a player than Cory Proctor, but it’s hard to put an accurate estimate on how much his loss has hurt the line’s overall play. I’d put it as more than 10%.

I do think his return makes Flozell Adams and Andre Gurode better players.  And it makes the Cowboys a more balanced running team.  They have been very right-handed so far this year.

The Cowboys offense should be humming again after the bye.  Romo’s return alone makes them much better.  Adding Jones and Kosier, not to mention the unknown potential of a Romo-Williams connection and the points should return.

And every point will be vital, because I don’t know what can be done to fix the run defense.  That’s the task facing the staff, because they’re going to be the Chargers East if they don’t figure that one out.  A source I spoke to yesterday said the front seven defenders “are having a hard time getting off blocks.”

Getting them free will determine this season — and the future employment of a lot of defensive players and coaches.

Developing…

Trick or Treat?

My brain keeps running in a mobius strip, going over the same offensive and defensive points.  I think Dallas can keep it close and perhaps win if they can pick Eli.

We’re going on faith that the youngsters can repeat the Bucs performance.  I believe in Orlando Scandrick and am gaining faith in Mike Jenkins.  But Alan Ball?  Hey, I want to believe, mister, but all I have is 30 minutes of play.

Looking at the series the last few years, it’s surprising how often the matchup has confounded the predictors.  Think back to 2005.  The first meeting, in Dallas, pitted two of the hottest offenses in the league.  The Giants had averaged 34 points in their first month.  The Cowboys had averaged 32 points in their three wins, and had dropped 33 on Philly the week before.  The over/under was high.

The game was a 16-13 nail biter.

There has only been one blowout since ‘05, that being the ‘06 Monday Night fiasco where Drew Bledsoe finally cracked and handed the reins to Tony Romo.  Regardless of injures, the Dallas defense matches up pretty well against the Giants.  I’m discounting last year’s opener because those games are outliers, which distort our views of matchups.  In the other two games the Cowboys allowed 20 and 21 points to New York.

The line is Giants by 9.  I’m not a betting guy but I’d take the points if I were.  New York has not overpowered the Cowboys at any time in the last three years.  Unless New York has discovered the perfect steroids- masking drug, I don’t see the Giants suddenly overpowering the Cowboys now — unless Dallas gives them help with turnovers.

The trick for me is getting the Cowboys to 20.  I’m having a hard time getting there.

Come on, Alan Ball…

New York 20, Dallas 16

Your turn.  What’s in your crystal ball?

P.S. — just a hunch, but I think Roy Williams emerges this week.

Good News — Romo’s Out

Tony Romo announced today he won’t play against Tampa Bay this Sunday and probably won’t play again until the Cowboys return from their bye against Washington.

Why is this good news?

Because Romo is almost halfway through his rehab, which will take four weeks.  I was told by Dr. Luis Rios that re-fracturing the finger resets the rehab clock at four weeks.

“If you were going to try to play with it, last week would have been the time.  If Romo re-injures the finger then, well, then just you add a week to the rehab, that’s not too bad.  But what if he’s three weeks in, and you play him against the Giants and he re-breaks the finger because it’s not fully healed.  Then, you’re back to square one and he misses four more weeks…”

The Cowboys have already had an awful history this year of injured players trying to rush back and re-injuring themselves.  Kyle Kosier was going to miss three September games, came back after two games and re-broke his foot.  Now, halfway through the season, Kosier has just one appearance.

Terence Newman was going to miss the Browns opener rehabbing his injured groin, played three weeks in apparent pain, didn’t look like himself and last week had surgery for a hernia.  We’re halfway through ‘08 and have yet to see a healthy, pain-free Newman.

Roy Williams tried coming back as soon as possible and re-broke his forearm.  Now, he’s out for the year.  Anthony Spencer is now rehabbing a hamstring after rehabbing a knee.

Dallas needs to bite the bullet and let Romo’s finger heal completely.  It does not matter what the Cowboys record is the next two games.  Whether they are 4-5 after the bye, 5-4 or 6-3, they don’t have the slightest chance without number 9 under center.  Jerry should take some of Tex’s deposit money for his seats in the new stadium and send Tony and Jessica back to Cancun until the bye is over.

Location of Romo’s Fracture Is Important

The team’s website claims that Tony Romo suffered a fractured right fifth metacarpal.

According to Dr. Luis Rios, my radio partner on The Sports Doctors and a hand surgeon in his day job, the location of Romo’s injury will affect his recovery time and odds for a full recovery this year.  The original statement found in many press stories of a “broken pinkie finger” gives the impression that Romo injured the area of the finger that extends into the air.  However, the 5th metacarpal refers to the bone that extends from the base of the wrist to the knuckle of the little finger.  It is the longest single bone in the hand.  It’s also the thickest one.

Because the metacarpals are surrounded by soft tissue and other bones, fractures to them are often relatively stable and heal well.

According to Dr. Rios:

“If the fracture is near the middle of the bone it can be stabilized with a plate and screws.  This will allow the bone to heal quicker and get Romo back on the field sooner.  However, if the fracture is just below the knuckle, often times a plate cannot be inserted and the fracture will have to heal on its own.  Therefore the fracture may require a little more time to heal before it is stable enough to allow Romo to play.

If it’s in the middle of the bone, the metacarpals are ameable to small injections that would reduce discomfort during a game but not numb the fingers.

If it’s a mid fracture, Romo could return on the short end of the rehab timetable, but if it’s a near-knuckle fracture he’s probably out the full 4-6 weeks.

Given the choice between a fractured metacarpal and a broken pinkie finger, you would prefer the former because it’s less likely to affect your accuracy when you return.”

No injury is good but the injury as described gives Romo a chance to come back as close to new as possible.

Romo Agonistes

Tomorrow marks Tony Romo’s 32nd start as an NFL QB.  And he’s made every single one without interruption since he led Dallas to a late 35-14 win at Carolina two years ago.

His numbers are remarkable — a 64.7 % career completion percentage, a number Troy Aikman matched or topped just three times in his gilded career;  Over 8,400 yards, an average of over 4200 yards per season.  Despite his yips, Romo has a fine 66 to 37 touchdown-to-interception ratio, which breaks down to a 33:19 ratio per season.

Eyeless in Gaza?  Only in the minds of harsh raters like us, who have been spoiled by his play.  He may be Sore Thumbed in Phoenix, however;  he was uncharacteristically erratic last week, short-hopping or plainly missing receivers he can normally hit blindfolded, with his back to the line.

For all the rips and Jessica slurs, Romo can tout a 23-8 career record, which will rise to 75% with a W against the Cardinals.

We should all be so embattled.

And God help the rest of the league if he shakes his “funk.”

It’s Adjustment Time

Pro football is a game of adjustment and adaptation.  You create an edge for your team and opponents respond.  If you’re a winner, you acknowledge their changes and make your own.

We’re one quarter of the way through the season and it’s time for the Cowboys to adapt.  On offense, they had strategies that worked very effectively against the Browns and Eagles but not as well against the Packers and Redskins.

Let’s go back to the Green Bay game.  The Cowboys had one pick in the red zone when Tony Romo tried a pass to a very well covered Jason Witten. Later, just before halftime, the Cowboys were in second and goal when they lined up in a shotgun formation, with Marion Barber to Romo’s right.  Dallas faked a draw to Barber and attempted a pass to T.O. running a post. This play had worked twice for touchdowns last year, most notably against New England, when the play fake sent Rodney Harrison into a conniption fit.

One problem.  One big problem.  Green Bay knew it was coming, and had both of Romo’s receiving targets double covered.  The play went for a huge loss.

The Eagles, in the second half of their game, went double on T.O. putting a corner tight on him and a safety behind him.  Green Bay did this with Charles Woodson.  Washington did this with Shawn Springs.  It hasn’t completely slowed Owens down, but it has slowed his production down from his first outstanding six quarters of the year.

This isn’t a call to panic.  Michael Irvin faced this type of attention regularly the last few years of his career.  But it’s clear that the better defenses have caught up to some of Dallas’ tendencies.  And it’s time to see how Jason Garrett adjusts.

On defense, better strong safety play is needed.  It’s funny, two years ago Dallas had no free safety.  Then Ken Hamlin was signed and closed the deep middle.  Now, however, Pat Watkins is looking confused.  Courtney Brown is playing some at the strong but has yet to distinguish himself.

It’s almost enough to make you miss Roy Williams.  Almost.

We haven’t talked ‘09 draft, and we always talk draft here.  Mark it down — Day one next April will target two offensive linemen and a strong safety.

It’s Hard to be Humble

This has been a trend going back the the old site in the mid ’90s, but I don’t know if I’ve ever shared it with you.

Traffic goes way down on the days after a Cowboys loss.  Yesterday’s traffic was only two thirds of what we normally get on a Monday.  But most Mondays, our biggest days, people are looking for affirmation of how great their team is.

Yesterday?  Not so many people looking for confirmation that their team played poorly.

Romo vs. Rogers — Battle of the Young, Old-School QBs

Tony Romo’s sudden success in mid-’06 caught a lot of people by surprise.  Back then we argued here at BSR that Romo was quick to adapt because he was nutured in the old-school, apprentice system that was the standard in the ’60s and ’70s.  A QB, no matter how highly picked, was required to “carry the clipboard” for at least a couple of seasons while he learned the art of quarterbacking.  Think of Craig Morton, a top 5 pick for Dallas in ‘65.  He was Don Meredith’s understudy for four years before becoming a starter.  Roger Staubach was a third year pro before he earned a start.

There was a sound reason for the apprentice method — QBs back then called their own plays.  They were “field generals” to a far greater extent than today’s signal callers, who read miniature play sheets velcroed to their wrists.  Quarterbacking is still a difficult craft to master but putting the play calling on your coordinator shortens the learning curse.

That said, way too many modern QBs are rushed into play.  The good ones, the Payton Mannings, the Troy Aikmans, the Tom Bradys adapt faster.  Romo, being an undrafted free agent from a small school, didn’t have the pressure his big name peers like Quincy Carter, Chad Hutchinson and Drew Henson did.  He could learn and grow without media scrutiny, though backup QBs are some of the NFL’s most popular players, no matter the team or city.

Romo had three years of pro experience before he earned a start.  He was familiar with his offense, his teammates and the speed of the pro game.  Aaron Rogers has started so effectively in Green Bay because he also learned in a pressure-free environment.  Rogers was a first round pick but dropped about 15 to 20 spots below his anticipated range on draft day.  He also backed up Brett Favre, who was in no hurry to retire.

Look at Jacksonville’s David Garrard, who looked like an old pro when Jacksonville finally made him a starter last year.  Look today at New England’s Matt Cassell.  He’s another guy with multiple years of backup experience.  Replacing Tom Brady has not fazed him.  He doesn’t seem to have the superstar potential of Romo and Rogers, but he knows how to move his team and minimize mistakes.

Romo’s and Rogers’ backgrounds suggest an interesting game.  Both are still relative newcomers to their starting lineups, but neither is a newcomer to the pro game.  Another duel, to rival Monday night’s, may be in the offing.

T.O. Scares Everybody

In the early days of training camp, I mentioned that the workouts could be summarized with the phrase, “T.O. Beats Everybody.”  No player had a better, more productive camp than the man whose middle name is Eldorado.

The Caddy made Philadelphia’s ballyhooed corners look like refurbished Hyundais in the first half Monday night.  He not only beat Sheldon Brown and Lito Sheppard, he humiliated them.  Owens didn’t catch a pass in the second half, but his early level of dominance changed Philly’s second half game plan, and aided Dallas’ comeback.

Jim Johnson’s initial strategy was to blitz Tony Romo with some frequency.  On Romo’s 14 first half attempts, the Eagles blitzed five or more men on 6 plays, or 43% of the time.  The Eagles rushed four men on the remaining 8 plays.

The Eagles initially tried playing Owens with a single corner, but neither Brown nor Sheppard could stay wtih him.  He ran Brown off on a 14 yard curl route, then left both Sheppard and safety Sean Considine more than five yards in his wake on a 72 yard bomb.

Johnson showed some brass putting FS Brian Dawkins one-on-one against Owens in the second quarter. T.O. looked insulted after he easily beat Dawkins on a 4 yard slant for a touchdown.

The play that probably changed Johnson’s thinking came on Dallas’ next series.  The Cowboys had run the ball on every one of its first seven 1st-down plays and the Eagles had stuffed Marion Barber, walking eight and sometimes nine men into the box.   Romo’s 4 yarder to T.O. had caught them off guard, and probably explains why Dawkins was left alone against Owens — the Eagles were expecting another run.

Now, facing 1st and ten on his 20, Jason Garrett called his second 1st-down pass, sending Owens on a stop and go at Brown.  T.O. was again more than five yards behind the corner when he caught the ball, which he took 55 yards to the Eagles’ 25.  The play was called back by a holding penalty, but it affected the remainder of the game.

Johnson had to give the corners covering Owens deep help.  When the second half started the Eagles began playing a lot of cover two, with a safety always rotating to Owens’ side.  This meant the Eagles now were playing with seven in the box, and Marion Barber began to find running room.  He had only 14 first half yards on six carries, and he topped that on his first 2nd-half carry, a bend play around right end for 18 yards.  He gained 49 second half yards on 12 carries, a far more respectable 4.1 average.

Cover two also compromised Philly’s rush.  Thirteen of the Eagles first fourteen second-half pass calls rushed four men, a meager 7% average. The Cowboys’ line handled these rushes with relative ease, giving Romo time to work his backs and tight ends in the middle of the field against Philly linebackers.  When the Eagles went to man coverage, they still tracked T.O. with two players.  Owens cleared out the right side of the Eagles defense on a third quarter play from the Philly 17, giving Barber the space to catch a touchdown against the overmatched MLB Stewart Bradley.

That’s Why They Pay Him the Big Money

Amazingly, Garrett had the perfect play for the one time in that 14-pass sequence where Johnson blitzed.  He called a screen to Barber on a 1st down play where Johnson rushed six men.  Barber followed three blockers along the far sideline for 25 yards.  Johnson again backed off; he would blitz just twice more in the game.

In a fitting end to his evening, Owens beat the new Eagle Asante Samuel, drawing an interference call in the end zone that set up Barber’s game winning run.  T.O. left the field knowing he had gotten the better of all three Philly corners.

Owens appears to have found a 6th gear at age 34, one that makes good cornerbacks look stupid.  He not only beats everybody, he flat-out scares everybody, top-tier coordinators included.

Note: Updated offensive stats will be posted later today.

Scientific Cowboys: Dallas Flies Delta Past the Browns

One of the bigger questions facing Dallas during Cleveland week was how to maintain its attacking style with only three healthy, dependable receivers on the roster. Sure, the Cowboys activated Mike Jefferson for the game but he was a backstop, there in case any of the Terrell Owens, Patrick Crayton, Isaiah Stanback trio went down.

Last week, I predicted that Dallas would flex TE Jason Witten a lot more, to give him chances to get up the field. Of all the marquee tight ends in the game, none flexed — or lined up as a receiver — fewer times than Witten, whom Dallas used this way just 23% of the time. (Compare that to Kellen Winslow, who flexed 75% of the time in Cleveland’s scheme last year.)

The Cowboys flexed Witten a lot more in this game, 15 times of their 32 attempts, for a 47% average. The tactic benefitted the Cowboys in several ways. First, it put Witten out in space, where it is harder for linebackers to jam him inside and funnel him into traffic. Second, it diminished an already weak Browns rush.

A play from the early 2nd quarter shows Jason Garrett’s thinking. Dallas put in its 12 package, with one back and two tight ends. Teams normally put both tight ends on the line of scrimmage, outside each tackle, or put one in the traditional TE position on the left or right side and move the second around, lining him up in the backfield, on a wing outside the first TE, giving an overload to that side, or out in space, in the slot.

On this play Dallas flexed both Witten and Tony Curtis, lining each up in a slot, about seven to eight yards wide of Flozell Adams and Marc Colombo. Cleveland, lined up in its base 3-4, had to pull both outside LBs, Willie McGinnest and Kamerion Wimbley, out to cover the tight ends.

As a result, the Browns had only five men “in the box,” their three down linemen and two inside linebackers. The Browns don’t blitz very often and this formation meant that Wimbley and McGinnest, their two best rushers, were lined up far from the line. They could rush, but would never get to Tony Romo in time. The Browns either had to blitz an inside ‘backer or go with just their line. Cleveland rushed the three DLs and the Cowboys line handled them. The package dictated the rush options to the defense and made blitz recognition easy.

The Cowboys did most of their flexed-TE damage from a package I’ll call delta. It is a two-TE set in which one TE lines up in the standard position just outside a tackle and the second TE flexes on the opposite side. The two WRs flank the flexed TE, with each wideout a yard behind the tight end. The three form a triangle, with the TE creating the point.

The formation is a zone buster. It overloads one side of a zone, and can generate delicious mismatches. The first time Dallas used the formation it got Terrell Owens a clean release and no coverage on his 35 yard TD pass, a play I detailed yesterday.

Another play from the late 3rd quarter shows how the delta package again put Owens in a huge mismatch. Dallas lined up in Delta right, with Witten flexed to that side. This time, however, Tony Curtis flanked to Witten’s left and T.O. flanked to Witten’s right. Patrick Crayton lined up as the split end on the far left, with Marion Barber and Tony Romo in the backfield shotgun set.

Cleveland again played zone, with LOLB McGinnest in space opposite Witten and LCB Eric Wright lined up five yards off the ball on T.O.’s outside shoulder.

Before the snap, Curtis went in motion to the right. He lined up as a flanker, far outside T.O. This forced the Browns to slide their coverage with Curtis and switch responsibilities; Wright, responsible for the wide man on his side, now played Curtis; McGinnest switched from Witten to T.O.; Witten went from being covered by McGinnest to being in open space.

The Browns rushed four men, and played a four-across zone behind them, meaning the three non-rushing LBs and the SS took the short zones and the CBs and FS played three across in the deep zone.

On the right, Dallas got its two best targets ideal matchups. Witten got a free release off the line ran a square in at eight yards and held the inside linebacker’s attention.

Owens beat a McGinnest jam, and ran a seam route. Tony Romo waited for him to get clear of McGinnest, and made an easy toss to T.O. who was tackled by centerfield safety Mike Adams at the Browns six.

Look at the production from the variants of the delta package:

1. 35 yard TD pass to Owens;
2. 5 yard completion on a quick out to Crayton;
3. A 22 yard seam right to Witten that the TE dropped;
4. A 31 yard skinny post to T.O. that was negated by a questionable offensive pass interference call;
5. A 17 yard fade left to Crayton;
6. The 22 yard seam to Owens highlighted above;
7. A 3 yard screen to Tashard Choice run away from the delta grouping;
8. A 15 yard comeback to Isaiah Stanback, who lined up as the split end away from the delta group.

Total – 8 plays for 150 raw yards, a 18.7 yard average.

Completions — 6 plays for 97 yards, a 16.1 yard average.

The Browns simply lacked the rush and secondary depth to handle the delta look. The Cowboys got huge gains almost every time they ran this set. The only failures were unforced. A Witten drop cost the Cowboys at least 22 yards and the dubious interference call cost Dallas another huge chunk of real estate.

So long as the Cowboys line and backs can protect Tony Romo, it appears the Cowboys have more than enough firepower in their tight end and receiving ranks to play attacking football.

Taking A Punch and Throwing Four: Dallas Clobbers Cleveland 28-10

On Dallas second 2nd half drive, Tony Romo took a Willie McGinnest helmet to the chin. He lay dazed on the turf for a moment, gathered his wits and responded with a deep completion on 3rd and long to Jason Witten. The pass was a body blow to a Browns team that was blitzing like crazy, trying to get back into a game the Cowboys put under control in the first half. Romo threw more jabs before Felix Jones knocked out the Browns with an eleven yard uppercut, following Leonard Davis and Cory Procter on power right to power Dallas to a 28-7 lead.

The subject of HBO’s Hard Knocks applied some to Cleveland today. The Cowboys ‘08 season began in a style that recalled the ’90s teams. Remember the ‘91 Cowboys, who went into Cleveland and dominated the Browns? Or the ‘94 team, which opened in Pittsburgh, thumping the Steelers 26-9?

Today’s performance was just as dominant. This team manhandled the Browns offense, stuffing the Cleveland running game and breaking up Cleveland’s rhythm in the middle two quarters after the Browns completed a touchdown drive on their second possession.

Adam Jones and Orlando Scandrick played well in their first Cowboys games. The Browns went hard at Scandick early and after Jones late and didn’t trouble either of them. Anthony Henry also looked strong as the secondary shackled Braylon Edwards. The Browns big-name wide out dropped a Derek Anderson bomb on Cleveland’s first series and disappeared afterwards. He finished with two catches for just 14 yards.

Kellen Winslow got off to a hot start but Dallas then moved Anthony Henry over him and Winslow’s game slowed down. He finished with 47 receiving yards, the only Brown to get more than 20. Derek Anderson got good protection from his blue chip line but the Cowboys secondary did a stellar job in coverge; Anderson passed for just 114 yards on 24 attempts, a weak 4.75 yards per attempt.

The dominance was even greater in the other matchup, where the Cowboys offensive line kept the Browns rushers out of Tony Romo’s area code. Hudson Houck’s guys gave Cory Procter the help he needed. Shaun Rogers beat Procter a couple of times but he was not a factor, spending shorter series on the field as the game progressed and his fatigue level increased.

Tony Romo posted All Pro numbers — he completed 70% of his passes and averaged 10 yards per attempt. He was on his way to a perfect day but rushed a pass from the Browns five that was intercepted late in the 3rd quarter, when Dallas was ready to blast to a 35-7 lead.

* * * * * *

The sharpness the Cowboys offense showed this summer carried over to the real games. The Cowboys had four first half series and drove for touchdowns on three of them. They drove methodically, opening the season with a perfectly balanced, 10-play, 80 yard drive. After a three and out the Cowboys raced 69 yards in just four plays. Dallas ended the half with another 10-play drive that pushed Dallas to a 21-7 lead just 26 seconds before the half.

Romo showed an impressible ability to take what the defense offered. Cleveland mixed a lot of zone and zone blitzes early, giving extra attention to T.O. Romo turned to Jason Witten, who abused safeties in the middle of the field for 19, 22 and 8 yards, the final catch giving Dallas first and goal at the one.

The second Witten completion demonstrates how tight the passing game was. On 2nd and 2 from the Browns’ 33, the defense lined up in a standard 3-4 look to match up with the Cowboys, who were in a two TE set, with Witten left and Martellus Bennett right. Just prior to the snap free safety Mike Adams sprinted up to the line and lined up just outside Flozell Adams.

The Browns were attempting an overload of the Dallas left side, but it was picked up superbly. Andre Gurode stalemated Shaun Rogers. Cory Procter stopped Robaire Smith, who tried cutting into the LG-LT gap. Adams passed Smith on to Procter and stoned Adams.

Outside, Kamerion Wimbley tried jamming Witten before coming on a delayed blitz. The jam was crucial with the blitz because inside linebacker D’Qwell Jackson had to get out into the flat and cover the tight end. He would have no chance unless Witten was knocked off balance at the line. Witten got a clean release outside Wimbley, raced several yards clear of Jackson and took Romo’s floater down to the Cleveland 12.

On the next series, Garrett showed that he hasn’t lost his matchup touch, getting Owens, his best receiving weapon, matched up against… nobody.

On the third play of the series Dallas faced 2nd and 12 on the Cleveland 35. Dallas lined up with a diamond package on its left flank — Jason Witten flexed wide and on the line of scrimmage, with Owens a yard behind the LOS and set to Witten’s left; Patrick Crayton was also a yard off the LOS and to Witten’s right. Martellus Bennett was lined up as the tight end right off Marc Colombo’s shoulder and Marion Barber was the line back directly behind Romo.

Cleveland was in a 3-4 look with SOLB Kamerion Wimbley lined up in space over Witten, with CB Brandon McDonald playing five yards off the ball off T.O.’s outside shoulder.

Just before the snap, Crayton went in motion left, lining up wide outside T.O. McDonald slid wide to cover him. The motion also pulled Wimbley farther towards the sideline, giving Witten a free release upfield. The Browns were in zone and Crayton’s pre-snap motion put three receiving targets in an area where the Browns had only McDonald and a deep safety playing center field. Witten ran a post, pulling the safety with him.

This meant that McDonald was alone on the right edge trying to cover both Crayton and T.O. Crayton ran 15 yards upfield and stopped. Owens ran up the left seam, unchallenged. Romo saw him and threw a perfect pass. McDonald got into the TV shot but he never had a chance to close from his wide position. It seems amazing that Owens got a free release and no direct coverage, but the Cowboys have created matchups like this for him ever since Garrett took over the play calling.

All was not perfect. The Cowboys took eleven penalties. Romo made two horrible passes in the Cleveland red zone. He got away with one, which was dropped, but the second forced throw was picked off. Romo won’t have the luxury of big leads every week and needs to cut these throws down. Felix Jones did a poor job of blocking on the pick but Romo could have taken a sack or thrown the ball away. Instead, he tossed it blindly.

Don’t be surprised if Montrae Holland is activated soon. Cory Procter did a good job of run blocking but the Browns began to beat him consistently on pass plays in the 2nd half. He blocked linebackers but could not stay with interior linemen who had any moves. Rogers whipped him several times with spin and swim moves. Eagles DC Jim Johnson will no doubt take note and target him next week. The pass blocking Procter showed today isn’t good enough for the long haul.

On the whole, the Cowboys were more than good enough. They took a game Cleveland’s best shots and gave back in abundance. They’ll have to stay sharp because a much better punching Eagles team comes to Texas Stadium next week.

* * * * * *

The Kids Are Alright

The rookies showed their value on the Cowboys final drive of the game. Cleveland took a field goal with 10:13 to close the gap to 28-13. They never saw the ball again. Dallas started at its own 20 and ended the game on the Cleveland 13, using 15 plays, 13 of them runs, to bleed the clock.

The Cowboys got one first down by relying on Felix Jones. The rookie carried twice and then threw a key block on a blitzing Browns safety, giving Romo the time to hit Crayton for seven yards and a first down. a

Two consecutive holding penalties put Dallas in 1st and 29. The team converted on a 15 yard out to Isaiah Stanback and a 22 yard slash by Felix Jones behind Leonard Davis and Marc Colombo. Jones run was the first of eight consecutive runs he and Tashard Choice made to end the drive and the game.

Stanback contributed, adding two catches for 24 yards to the tally. He showed some solid blocking on the perimeter.

Jones was the real sensation. The rookie took over in the second half after Barber left to have his ribs examined. He finished with nine carries for 62 yards, a tidy 6.9 yard average. He had a long run of 22 yards and just missed a longer TD run in the late third quarter, where Mike Adams made a desperate ankle tackle.

Cowboys @ Browns Preview, Part III

When Dallas Throws the Ball

The Cowboys run many of the same sets the Browns do, because the OC pedigrees are similar. Follow the bouncing ball: Jason Garrett played for Norv Turner and Ernie Zampese last decade and uses many of their aggressive, timing plays. Browns OC Rob Chudzinski was San Diego’s TE coach when Cam Cameron ran the Chargers’ offense under Marty Schottenheimer. Cameron runs the same schemes Turner does. When Chudzinski and Cameron both left last season, Chargers GM A.J. Smith hired Turner back because he would keep the same offensive fundamentals, allowing for a smooth transition to the new regime.

The bottom line is that you’ll see many of the same personnel packages from each team. A look at Dallas’ passing breakdown shows patterns similar to those we saw from the Browns in Part I of the preview:

Targets	Att.	% of Romo’s Att.	YPA
Terrell Owens	139	26	9.7
Jason Witten	141	27	8.2
Patrick Crayton	80	15	9.5
Totals	360	68

Look at the Cowboys’ table and look at the Browns. The percentages to the first three targets are almost uncanny. Dallas also uses its #1 WR and TE as options 1 and 1A. The second receiver also gets 15% of the passes.

The wideouts will be playing an underrated set of Browns corners. Last season Cleveland lined up Eric Wright and Leigh Bodden and got very good play from both. Wright was superb out of the collegiate box, posting a 6.1 YPA. He was very good against red-level wideouts and is Cleveland’s top cover man.

The Browns lost Bodden in free agency and are confident that nickel and dime backs Daven Holly and Brandon McDonald can step up. Both had YPAs under 7 last year, which is red-level, but have struggled in the ‘08 pre-season games.

The key to Dallas’ success will be getting T.O. away from Wright. Garrett was excellent at this last year, motioning Owens into the slot and working him on shallow crosses and seams over the middle, where he was matched up on linebackers and safeties. Nearly half of Owen’s ‘07 attempts came against these coverages.

The Browns use a lot of zone so look for more of the same. Don’t be surprised if Patrick Crayton has a strong game. He had a strong 9.5 YPA in ‘07, which ranked 11th overall. Crayton’s downfall is red-level corners. He posted a lousy 2.6 against top tier corners, so look for the Cowboys to line him up away from Wright as much as possible. Crayton was 9.2 or better against mid and low-level corners, so he may put up some big numbers working the rest of the Cleveland secondary. He had a Bob Hayes-esque 19.4 YPA against non-rated CBs.

If Isaiah Stanback can stay on the field and flash some deep speed (getting his hands on a deep ball will suffice, to keep the Browns corners honest) Crayton could get the favorable matchups he’s destroyed in the past.

It will be interesting to see how many times Jason Witten plays the F-back, motioning into the backfield and how often he lines up on the line of scrimmage and can run deeper routes up field. Deon Anderson’s health should see Dallas playing more two back sets, putting Witten outside an OT or in the slots, usually on the same side as Owens. This puts the safety on that side in the difficult position of trying to choose which option to cover deep.

When Tony Romo drops back to pass, he’ll be protected by one of the best units in the game. The Browns get a lot of ink because their starting five only allowed 10 sacks last year but Dallas’ starters only gave up 11. Flozell Adams allowed a league best one sack at left tackle and Andre Gurode was stellar inside. Mark Colombo is a bit weaker on the right side, giving up 5 sacks last year, but was gritty against top rushers.

The Cowboys line is dinged, with LG Kyle Kosier out with an injured foot. After shuffling several interior linemen into the LG slot, backup C Cory Procter will get the start. There’s some concern that Procter could have trouble with massive NT Shawn Rogers, the Browns big offseason acquistion on defense.

Procter will likely get help from his center and his offensive coordinator. Last year, Jason Garrett ran a 56/44 pass/run blend. What’s more, he skewed his play calling heavily towards the pass early and the run late. This tactic was very effective at wearing out defensive lines early, as it’s taxing for 330-340 lb. DTs to run several sprints in heat, especially when they’re chasing an active QB like Tony Romo.

Garrett used this strategy to perfection in week two last year against the Dolphins, when he had Miami’s DTs worn out before the half. I expect him to try the same tactic Sunday. Rogers is very talented, but is also very overweight and wears out quickly. I think Dallas will make him rush a lot the first two to three series, and send him to the oxygen tank as quickly as possible.

Dallas will be facing a Browns front that could muster only 28 sacks last year. Kamerion Wimbley led the team with 5 sacks. Cleveland’s top four rushers combined for 17 sacks. Demarcus Ware, by comparison, had 14 all by himself. The Browns rush may be further weakened by OLB Antwaan Peek’s knee injury. Watch his status as game time approaches.

Cleveland’s weak rush may be the deciding factor in the game. The Browns were criticized last year for sitting in zones and playing it safe early on. Their rush came on down the stretch and they have the talent to be troublesome when they’re healthy, but right now they’re not at full strength. Peek appears hurt, as is safety Brodney Pool, who recently suffered a concussion. He has not been practicing and may not play.

Romeo Crennell was Bill Belichick’s DL coach and he’ll try some creative ways to get his guys to Romo. If they fail early, he may call on heavy blitzing, which is exactly what Dallas is hoping for. Cleveland has talent in its secondary, but its young and somewhat erratic. If the Cowboys can prevent leaks at left guard, Romo will get some chances for big plays.

Fun With SF ‘08 Part V: More Aikman and Less Farve This Year, Mr. Romo. Please!

When we last saw the Dallas offensive regulars, they were pushing to the edge of dominance against a young and rising Texans defense. The Cowboys first offensive series scored a touchdown. The second just missed a TD when a Tony Romo pass flew a foot or so beyond a wide open Terrell Owens.

The third drive slashed to Houston’s two. There, six feet from an early knockout, Romo offered a jarring caveat to all the Cowboys fans dreaming of a Super Bowl run. He forced a first down pass to a well covered Tony Curtis and was picked off. Instead of trotting to the sidelines with a 17-3 lead, he watched a deflated defense surrender a long, game-tying drive.

This was the bad Tony returned, the gunslinger whose wild ways kept Bill Parcells from handing Romo the offense reins earlier in his career. It was a reminder that for all his accuracy and magic, there’s still a young Brett Favre inside of Romo just waiting for the worst moment at which to appear.

Let’s compare his ten-start ‘06 to his full-season ‘07:

Tony Romo	YPA	Rank	Near Int.	Bad Dec.	B.D. %	Rank
2006	8.4	1st	11	7	1.9	T-12th
2007	8.2	T-1st	28	22	4.0	39th

Romo’s YPAs show that he’s been one of the most effective passers in the game during his short career, mixing high accuracy with an aggressive, down-the-field style that produces big yards per attempt. He had the top spot alone in ‘06 and shared it with Tom Brady last year.

The downside to that aggressiveness is bouts of recklessness. Think Buffalo and the six interceptions, almost all of which occurred because Romo lacked the patience — at least for 52 minutes — to take what the Bills cover-two scheme conceded.

Look at Romo’s bad-decisions totals and his ranks. In his rookie season he tied for 12th in that category with Peyton Manning. That’s a great line. QBs like Manning sometimes have bad-decision averages in the top third or near mid-pack. It’s a by-product of attacking and not playing Brad Johnson-ball.

Look next at the ‘07 totals, where his percentage of bad decisions, passes where he forced passes into coverage and risked a pick, more than doubled. He ranked second-from-the-last in that category among starters, with only Derek Anderson and Jay Cutler faring worse.

His 28 near interceptions ranked next-to-last. Only his boyhood idol Brett Favre had more. To frame these stat lines another way, consider that in ‘06 Drew Bledsoe ranked second-to-last in bad decision percentage. Dallas found a rude amalgam in Romo 2.0 — the swagger and daring of Roger Staubach mixed with the consistent brain freezes of Drew Bledsoe.

That’s not to say Romo became or is in danger of becoming Drew Bledsoe. He’s better, even with the miscues. But one reason why Tom Brady has played in four Super Bowls this decade is that despite his high YPAs, he consistently makes the fewest bad decisions.

Romo talked this summer about improving his pocket presence and trying to be more patient with his reads. If he can return his stat line to the ‘06 standard and is Troy Aikman-like with his passes, Dallas truly is a Super Bowl contender. If we get more of the ‘07 edition, the bad Brett Favre replica, the one who threw that pick two weeks ago against the Texans, the more likely forecast is a Pro Bowl berth, a playoff berth and another painful playoff defeat.

Three Factoids That May Shape the Cowboys-Browns Bottom Line

1. New DL coach Todd Grantham is already paying dividends, getting Marcus Spears to play far above his Kacey Rogers-era level and getting Tank Johnson into opposing backfields with regularity this preseason.

He may pay another dividend — as a spy. Grantham was Cleveland’s defensive coordinator last year and has as much insight into the Browns defensive capabilities and thinking as anybody in the Cowboys meeting room. I’m guessing he’s spent some time talking to the offensive coaches the last two weeks.

2. We’ve heard since OTAs that the Cowboys are working on nickel and especially dime packages that line up Anthony Henry inside, on opposing tight ends.

You won’t have to wait long to see them. As I pointed out in Thurday’s piece on Jason Witten, the Browns use TE Kellen Winslow Jr. as a wide receiver. He was “flexed” off the line, or lined up as a receiver on 75% of Cleveland’s plays last year, easily the most for any NFL tight end.

Dallas usually slides Terence Newman inside when it plays nickel, but the Browns signed speedster Donte Stallworth this offseason to pair with Braylon Edwards. In effect, they’re running a three-WR base set, with the 6′4″, 250 lb. Winslow as their slot option.

There’s no way Dallas is going to stay in their base and put Roy Williams in coverage against Winslow. The Cowboys may open in their nickel with Henry over the tight end and Newman and Adam Jones lining up over the wideouts.

3. How well would the Cowboys do against their offense? And vice versa? I’ve watched the Browns the last three weeks and notice their packages and offensive plays greatly mirror Dallas’. Cleveland OC Rob Chudzinski and Cowboys OC Jason Garrett are both aggressive play callers with gunslinger QBs who like to throw down the field.

Tony Romo had the third-highest percentage of bad decisions among starting QBs last year. Derek Anderson had the second-highest percentage. The difference is that Romo was more accurate and had a solidly higher YPA and a significantly higher SYPA (success % times YPA). Whichever defense is better able to throw their opposing QB out of his confort zone and press him into more bad decisions will have a huge edge.

4. Bonus crumb — A review of the Vikings video showed Alan Ball making several tackles as a gunner on the punt coverage teams. With Miles Austin and Sam Hurd hurt, Ball bought himself a longer stay with his special special-teams play.

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