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Bye-Week Game Thread

OK, the important game is obviously Giants @ Eagles. There are huge implications in the outcome of this game as it pertains to the Cowboys.

The Giants win and they take a stranglehold on the division, having beaten all division opponents once. It would put them 2 games up on the Redskins and 3 games up on the Cowboys and Eagles.

Philadelphia wins and it puts the Cowboys 2 games behind the Giants and one against the Eagles and Redskins, who will host Dallas next week after also having a bye.

I’m torn on this. If I look at it from a standpoint of winning the division, I have to root for the Eagles, as it closes the gap in the division and Dallas has already beaten the Eagles once. If I root for the [gulp] Giants, a win puts the Eagles in last place by way of tiebreaker since Dallas beat them earlier.

Maybe I’ll pull for a tie… Who you got?

Kneejerk Analysis: Not Hanging On — Redskins 26, Cowboys 24

The key, I believe, will be turnovers.  The Redskins have been very opportunistic, with a plus five turnover rating.  While 3-0, the Cowboys are minus three in that department.  While that shows their strength, it’s also playing with fire.

Nobody can predict turnovers, but if the Cowboys stay on form, and throw a pick in the red zone on cue, they could lose this one.

– Just Hang On, Cowboys vs. Redskins Preview

The Cowboys stayed on form, and they lost this one.  Dallas had lost the turnover battle in every game this year but was 3-0.  Today, they only committed one turnover, but the Redskins, who have net to turn the ball over this year, had none.  And that was the difference in a 26-24 Redskins win.

No surprises.  Jason Campbell showed that he’s a good QB.  Santana Moss got his plays.

As always in games like this, the game turned on execution.  Washington executed their game plan better and controlled the 2nd and 3rd quarters, and finally let the air out of the ball on a seven-minute-plus fourth quarter drive that let the air out of the game and left Dallas scrambling.

Washington’s biggest edge was in their run attack.  Their left side of Chris Samuels and Pete Kendall controlled the Cowboys front.  Clinton Portis got most of his yards this way.  Chris Canty is usually money versus the run, but Samuels got him today.

On defense, the Redskins stacked the line and trusted their secondary to cover the Cowboys in press.  Dallas made some good sized passes but the Redskins disrupted enough plays to force punts.  The play I’m sure Romo wants back came on Dallas’ second, second half drive.  The Cowboys went three wide and gave Romo decent protection.  Patrick Crayton was running a skinny post from the slot and his man slipped when Crayton made his cut.

Washington’s safety had a bad angle.  Crayton was going to take this ball from midfield deep into Washington territory, but Romo flat out missed him.

This was Washington’s strategy — take your chances that you’ll give up some plays but don’t let Dallas get into a rhythm.

It worked, and now both teams are 3-1.

The NFC East is a Beast, and You Should be Ecstatic

The East is 10-2 so far, and both losses have come in divisional games.

The Redskins lone loss came to the Giants.

The Eagles lone loss came in Dallas.

The Cowboys showed the Packers are a pretender.  The Cowboys wore them out so thoroughly, several Packers were getting IVs at halftime.  At Lambeau Field.

The Eagles took arguably the best team in the AFC thus far and beat the snot out of them.  Jim Johnson’s guys sacked Steelers QBs nine times today.  At one point, game announcers were wondering out loud how Dallas could score 41 points on them and not permit a single sack.

The Redskins took a team that may be the class of the NFC West and beat them.

The Giants looked a little ragged against the Bengals, but hey, they’re 3-0.

One of these teams might finish with a winning record and miss the playoffs.  The Eagles were 8-8 last year and finished last.

That narrows the Cowboys margin for error but also improves their post-season chances, should they make the playoffs.  In his new book Blindsided, KC Joyner devotes a chapter to the myth that early schedules ease a team’s route to the offseason.  He goes back to the merger and rates each division from 1-6 in the six division era and 1-8 in the current system.

He finds overwhelming evidence that teams from tough divisions perform better in the post season.  The lowest-rated divisonal winner to win a Super Bowl is the ‘99 Rams, who came from the 6th ranked division.  Teams that feast off weak divisions fold far more often than not in January.

Playing tough rivals toughens you up.  Look at the ‘07 Giants.  They said after their title that Dallas was the toughest opponent they faced.  Michael Strahan said they were much tougher than the Patriots.

That shootout last Monday night will help to steel this team.  Ask Aaron Rodgers and his mates if the Cowboys felt the short week, or the Lambeau Field mystique.

They’ll tell you no, once they pull the IVs from their arms and take their oxygen masks off.

Beware the Week One Rush to Judgement

NFL fans can’t wait. They’ve been without football since early February and they’re getting real football back. Their hearts are racing. Their minds are spinning.

And it leads to outrageous over reactions to good play and bad. I’ve said for years that week one of the NFL schedule is the most overanalyzed. People form hard opinions of teams that are hard to shake.

Week one reveals very litte in the long run. It resembles the end of ‘07 more than it will tell us how ‘08 will unfold. There are several factors that make it unlike any other. First, it’s the only regular season game for most teams where the staffs will have more than three to four days to prepare. For the remainder of the season coaches will have to put Sunday’s game behind them and have fresh game plans ready to install that Wednesday and Thursday.

This week, coaches can unwrap game plans that have been weeks in the making. Dallas started practicing for the Browns last week, when the Vikings were still on their schedule.

There’s the conditioning issue. Some teams have been holding back injured starters to keep them for real games. This means you’ll see teams that might not have their timing down or have the stamina to go 60 minutes. If you saw the Giants/Redskins opener you know what I’m writing. The Giants looked like they were going to run Washington off the field, racing to a second-quarter 16-0 lead. But the game stalled in the second half, where neither team scored a point.

There are teams with new staffs that are learning new systems. They’re often not ready to play their best ball on opening day.

Weeks two and three are much better indicators or what a team will be. Don’t misunderstand, I’m not trying to downplay Dallas’ odds. I think they’ll win, in part because too many Cleveland starters missed too much time this summer, a point I’ll address in the final preview today. That said, there’s a chance parts of the Cowboys game will be ragged.

Think back to last year. The Cowboys won their opener against a division rival and yet a lot of fans were white hot at Wade Phillips because his team gave up 35 points. He was a fraud, they said, a defensive coach with no defense. The secondary was doomed because Terence Newman was hurt.

Was this game a true indicator of the defense’s and the team’s future? No. The Cowboys allowed 20, 10 and 7 points in the next three games and finished the month 4-0.

Root hard, my friends, but don’t root yourself sick. There will be a week two and a week three, and thirteen more game weeks after that.

Fun with SF ‘08 IV: How Ken Hamlin Got His Groove Back and Saved the Secondary

Longtime BSR readers know I’ve been using Scientific Football to bash the Cowboys’ inept free safety play under Bill Parcells. For whatever reason, the Tuna neglected the spot, trying to force a strong safety, Keith Davis, into the spot, and later trying to force feed rookie Pat Watkins into the position.

Both projects failed. Here’s a chart showing the free safety direct coverage play in ‘05 under Davis, ‘06 under Watkins, and last season under Ken Hamlin. (SF also tracks deep assists, where the safeties roll up in coverage to help corners.)

Player	Att.	Stops	Succ. %	Yards	YPA	Rank
Keith Davis ‘05	31	14	45.2	485	15.6	36th
Pat Watkins ‘06	11	4	36.4	227	20.6	36th
Ken Hamlin ‘07	22	13	59.1	107	4.9	*

After ‘05 and ‘06 it didn’t seem possible that the Cowboys’ free safety play could get any worse. Davis and Watkins ranked 36th among 36 safeties in their respective years. In other words, the Cowboys had the worst free safety play in the NFL during that time. Add in Roy Williams’ suspect coverage skills and Dallas had a gaping hole in its deep middle.

That’s not a good way to build a Super Bowl push. When Hamlin was signed in April ‘07 I wrote that regardless of whether the Cowboys got the mid-pack ‘06 Hamlin or the top-5 rated ‘05 Hamlin, they were due to improve.

Look at how much they improved. Joyner didn’t list the direct coverage stats for free safeties in this year’s book but only the late Sean Taylor produced a direct coverage YPA better than Hamlin’s. With Hamlin in the deep middle the one-play 70 yard TD pass drives Cowboys’ fans witnessed in ‘05 and ‘06 disappeared.

Hamlin’s yards allowed total is less than one quarter of what Davis allowed in ‘05. It’s less than half of Watkins’ ‘06 total. (And remember that Watkins was benched in mid-season, so his totals are only a fragment of the team total.)

If Dallas can keep its cornerbacks healthy, it can be a real force with Hamlin in the middle, no matter what type of year Roy Williams has at strong safety. Hamlin missed OTAs bargaining for a better contract but when you look at these numbers it’s hard to begrudge him one penny of his new deal.

Everybody Hurts

Update: Osi Umenyiora has a torn MCL and will miss the entire 2008 season.

Update 2: They’re breathing easier in Washington, where Jason Taylor’s knee sprain will only keep him out two weeks.

Update 3:  Dawkins has a “mild sprain” of his ankle and expects to be ready for the Eagles season opener.

Cowboys fans are no doubt concerned about the offensive line’s cohesion after Kyle Kosier sprained his foot. The injury will likely wipe out the first month of his season.

Kosier has plenty of company in the trainer’s room. Every team in the division suffered at least one significant injury last night.

– In New York, they’re sweating Osi Umenyiora’s MRI. He was taken from the field on a cart after injuring his knee. Umenyiora was in extreme pain and told trainers his knee “locked up.” Coach Tom Coughlin said trainers do not believe the DE suffered ligament damage but nobody will know the full extent of Umenyiora’s injury until later today.

If Umenyiora has to miss significant time the team’s defensive strength, their pass rush line, will take a body blow. Michael Strahan is resting in California after retiring. Right now New York may have to open the season without both its starting ends from ‘07. One city paper is already urging Giants GM Jerry Butler to call Strahan and try to coax him back onto the team.

– In Washington, the Redskins are concerned that DE Jason Taylor may have a significant knee injury. He’s also slated for an MRI today after hurting a knee in the 47-3 blowout loss to Carolina. The Redskins acquired Taylor because they had already lost two DEs, one of them ‘07 team sack leader Philip Daniels, for the season.

Washington also lost RT Jon Jansen with a sprained foot. Jansen missed most of ‘07 with an Achilles injury.

– Philadelphia has lost FS Brian Dawkins for an undetermined amount of time because he injured his ankle Saturday night against New England.

The Eagles are already thin at wide receiver, where Kevin Curtis will miss several weeks with a hernia and Reggie Brown is nursing a sore hamstring.

Philly also has questions on the offensive line. C Jamaal Jackson suffered a concussion last night and RG Shawn Andrews is just back after seeking treatment for despression.

The NFL season is a war of attrition. I don’t think so many teams expected to be so worn before it gets started. Add Tom Brady’s and Peyton Manning’s injuries to the equation and injuries rival Gene Upshaw’s death as the top league story heading to opening day.

Which Teams Have the Best Corner Units?

In part four of the series assessing cornerbacks using K.C. Joyner’s YPA stats from 2004 through 2007, I move from individual assessments to unit ratings. Joyner has a new set of ratings in Scientific Football 2008. I’m not going to rely on these numbers, though I will relay that Dallas finished ‘07 in the top ten.

I’ve chosen to overlook his ‘07 ratings for two reasons. First, they’re exclusive to 2007. Joyner rates the corner units as they performed in ‘07. That’s fine, but with Adam Jones joining the Cowboys’ roster, fans are interested in predictive stats.

For that reason I’m using any and all of Joyner’s numbers from the past four years. I figure more is better. As you’ve seen, a player’s YPA’s can fluctuate wildly from year to year. If we want an idea of how a corner is likely to perform in ‘08, I think it’s best to use all the data that’s available. In Terence Newman’s and Anthony Henry’s cases, I’m using their four-year averages, since those numbers are available. In Jones’ case, Joyner has two years of numbers on him, so I’ll go with their average and will do the same with every other CB.

I’m also rating the units three deep, since nickel backs are vital in this era of spread sets. This will lead to some omissions that cannot be helped. For example, Buffalo will be playing a rookie, Leodis McKelvin at one corner spot this year, so I can’t put a number on his performance.

Lastly, I’m simply averaging the three player’s YPAs here, which does not give proper weight to each player’s contribution, so consider these “soft” averages. Therefore, I’m going to place the units in tiers, rather than in a column. By coincidence, there are only five units that have an average YPA below 7.0, so they form my pantheon. Here they are in alphabetical order, with each player’s average YPA in parentheses:

1. Chicago — Nathan Vasher (5.7), Charles Tillman (6.6), Trumaine McBride (7.1)
Vasher is the best corner we have not discussed yet, because I have not rated players with only two seasons of YPAs. Vasher was top notch in ‘05 and ‘06 but missed 12 games last year because of injury. McBride filled in and posted a very respectable 7.1 YPA.

2. Dallas — Terence Newman (6.2), Adam Jones (6.3), Anthony Henry (7.4)
Jones has an average near Newman’s and has a career peak topping Newman’s, posting an outstanding 5.4 YPA in ‘06. (Newman’s career best is 5.7.) If Jones can approach this number again, he’ll be a starter.

3. Green Bay — Charles Woodson (6.5), Al Harris (7.5), Jarrett Bush (6.6)
Harris gets a lot of love from the press, but his YPA is lower than Anthony Henry’s. Like Henry, he’ll break up passes but give up some huge gains. Bush was very good in his first year at nickelback.

4. Pittsburgh — Deshea Townsend (6.3), Ike Taylor (7.4), Bryant McFadden (6.0)
It’s feast or famine with this bunch. Taylor has been consistently average at one corner and therefore draws most of the action. Townsend and McFadden have alternated so-so seasons with off-the-charts good ones. Both had YPAs below 5.5 last year. If the pattern holds, they’ll be off this season.

5. Washington — Shawn Springs (5.5), Fred Smoot (6.8), Carlos Rogers (7.1)
Springs outstanding play the past four years raises this bunch, but Smoot and Rogers have been steady and good, if unspectacular.

NFC Crystal Ball

The preseason magazines have started to appear. We used to rate them here, but gave up because they have this nasty habit of taking last year’s playoff field, adding maybe one “surprise team,” though they often have none.

As we’ve pointed out time and again here, there are on average four teams that go from losing records to the playoffs each year. Most of them have been in the NFC this decade.

Let’s ignore the magazines this time around and make our own picks.

I’ve nominated the Vikings as my new standout team. But let’s take it farther.

1. Pick the six playoff teams.

2. Who will be new to the playoff dance?

3. Any bounce-back teams?

4. Who are ’08’s big droppers?

I’ll take first crack.

1. The playoff six:

1. Cowboys
2. Vikings
3. Saints
4. Cardinals
5. Giants
6. Panthers

2. I have four new playoff teams — the Vikings, Cards, Saints and Panthers. There has been roughly 50% turnover from year to year league wide and I’m seeing more churn in the NFC, which has been the more volatile conference.

My final slot came down to the Eagles and Panthers. I’m giving Carolina the nod today, though I’d like to see Jake Delhomme’s health before I lock this one in.

3. My two NFC loser-to-playoff teams are the Saints and Panthers, with the Vikings and Cardinals moving from 8-8 to the post-season. I also see San Francisco yo-yoing back into contention but just missing the playoffs.

4. Big droppers?

a. The Redskins are trying too much change. They’ve lost their head coach and their DC, which means they’re putting in new offensive and defensive systems. They’re also relying a lot on their first-day receiver and tight end draftees;

b. The Packers should be good but what do we really know about Aaron Rogers. Their division will get tougher, with the Vikings and Bears improving. I don’t see them falling to 6-10 but 9-7 could happen;

c. The Seahawks have lived off their division’s weakness; they’re the only Western team to finish above .500 since 2003. They won 9 games in ‘06 and 10 in ‘07. I see them dropping out of the divisional penthouse with the Cards and 49ers improving. I’ve been burned before picking the Cards but they’ve been building their talent base and can win that division at 10-6 or 9-7.

d. The Bucs jumped back into the race last year by riding their defense. That offense doesn’t scare me. They’ve have 83 quarterbacks, which means they don’t have one. How much longer can Joey Galloway carry that offense?

Your turn.

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